NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 6

by Devon Rymarchuk - 10/14/2021

Week 5 had some incredible performances, especially from the quarterback position. Justin Herbert had a thrilling win against the Cleveland Browns to take the long position atop the AFC West. Herbert has had the most 300-yard games in his first two years in NFL history; he definitely looks like a man not to be reckoned with this season, and the Chargers have been one of the most entertaining teams to watch this season. The Buffalo Bills, led by Josh Allen, dismantled the Kansas City Chiefs; with this win there is no doubt the Bills are for real this year. With stellar play from both sides of the football, they are the team in the AFC to beat this season.

Lamar Jackson was able to erase a 19-point deficit Monday night as the Baltimore Ravens had the game of the week versus the Indianapolis Colts. Having 500 all-purpose yards, Jackson and the Ravens may be one of the quietest 4-1 teams in the NFL. Not only did the Seattle Seahawks have a heartbreaking home loss Thursday night to the Los Angeles Rams, they also lost their franchise quarterback Russel Wilson in the process. In a tough AFC West, the Seahawks will look to veteran Geno Smith to save their season.

The Detroit Lions could be one of the best 0-5 teams in recent history. Losing a tight one to the Minnesota Vikings on a last second field goal Sunday, they have been almost every game this year, losing two games on field goals in the final seconds. And from a confidence perspective, you have to believe their fortune will turn around soon.

In week 5, you also saw teams separate themselves from the rest. The Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, and Los Angeles Chargers are all 4-1 or better. All of these teams have all been able to win and close out important games. Early in the year, teams like the Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, and Oakland Raiders all had uncharacteristic 3-0 starts. But since then, all three teams have lost their last two games, proving that schedule difficulty and matchups were the key indicator in their hot starts.

This week, we have six matchups within 3.5 points, according to the opening lines for the week, and only four games favored at 7 or more points. Expect it to be a very tight week, especially when picking winners.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Key matchups of week are as follows:

Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers

Spread -1 (Vikings)

Pick Popularity 47%

Win Percentage 41%

Much of this matchup will depend on the health of running back Christian McCaffrey for the Carolina Panthers. As seen in the previous two weeks, the Panthers are a completely different offense without their star running back. On the flip side, the Minnesota Vikings have been tested in a lot of tight games for only being five weeks into a season. Having a much harder schedule than the Panthers, two of their three loses were within 3 points or less. Both teams exemplify a similar skillset, and a close matchup is to be expected. I am giving the edge to Minnesota based on a more, well-rounded offense and the uncertainty of McCaffrey.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium London, England)

Spread +3.5 (Jaguars)

Pick Popularity 33%

Win percentage 38%

The Miami Dolphins have dropped off a cliff in 2021. Miami’s defense ranks 30th in the NFL, with 422 yards allowed per game, and worst in the NFL on third down defense at 57% conversion rate allowed. Defense, which was a strong point for the Dolphins in 2020, where they ranked top 10 in most defensive categories, has been completely out of sync in 2021. For this reason, I believe the Jacksonville Jaguars have a great chance to snap their 20-game losing streak in England Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots

Spread -4 (Cowboys)

Pick Popularity 93%

Win percentage 63%

Dallas Cowboys are being picked at the 8th or 9th most confident team of the week. I believe you can confidently move them up your rankings for week 6. I do not believe Mac Jones and the Patriots will be able to keep up with the 2nd best offense in the NFL, and ultimately Dak Prescott and the Cowboys will be too overwhelming for the Patriots. The offense for the Patriots has turned over the ball nine times in the past five games. Giving the Cowboys this many chances offensively will be a recipe for disaster Sunday in Foxborough,

Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens

Spread +3 (Chargers)

Pick Popularity 53%

Win Percentage 41%

The Baltimore Ravens have looked superb in 2021, but there are some question marks surrounding their secondary, which ranks 28th in Passing Yards gained per game. Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense will be able to expose the Ravens defense. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense will also have no trouble running the ball against the Chargers defense that ranks last in yards against per game. This game may come down to whoever gets the last possession. However, overall, the Chargers have looked like a far more dominant and consistent team this season. Considering the Ravens could have lost two games to the Lions and Colts if it were not for late game heroics, I would take the Chargers all day in this AFC duel.

Week 1 performance from Devon: 68 points

Week 2 performance from Devon: 82 points

Week 3 performance from Devon: 95 points

Week 4 performance from Devon: 88 points

Week 5 performance from Devon: 102 points

My Confidence picks

Win	Loss
14. Indianapolis Colts	Houston Texans
13. Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants
12. Kansas City Chiefs	Washington Football Team
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Philadelphia Eagles
10. Dallas Cowboys	New England Patriots
9. Buffalo Bills	Tennessee Titans
8. Green Bay Packers	Chicago Bears
7. Los Angeles Chargers	Baltimore Ravens
6. Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks
5. Jacksonville Jaguars	Miami Dolphins
4. Minnesota Vikings	Carolina Panthers
3. Cincinnati Bengals	Detroit Lions
2. Denver Broncos	Las Vegas Raiders
1. Arizona Cardinals	Cleveland Browns

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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 6

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