NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 11

by Devon Rymarchuk - 11/18/2021

It was another wild week in the NFL during week 10 of the 2021 season. We saw some expected outcomes and other stunning results. In primetime games this year, underdogs are covering at a 75 percent clip, and of the 28 games played there have been 10 outright underdog winners. Making this season all the more fun and unpredictable, it also makes it attainable to catch up in any confidence league.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Key Takeaways

Russell Wilson gets shut out for the first time in his Seattle Seahawks career by arguably the hottest defense in the NFL. The Packers have not given up more than 22 points since week 3 and are the most consistent team in the NFL right now. The Tennessee Titans continue to roll, defeating the New Orleans Saints, making it seven wins versus 2020 playoff teams this season. Cam Newton is back; the Carolina Panthers were able to save their season against one of the top teams in the NFL Sunday. The Panthers outmanned the Arizona Cardinals in a statement victory with what seemed like a whole new energy to their team.

The defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers ruined a lot of confidence picks and survivor pools in week 10, losing to the Washington Football Team. That makes two loses in a row for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. Mac Jones, who was seen to be the boring quarterback top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, is leading one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The New England Patriots dismantled the Cleveland Browns, and it would be no surprise at this point if the Patriots challenged the Buffalo Bills for an AFC East mantle. Lastly, in typical Thursday night fashion, the Baltimore Ravens lost on the road to the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins showed glimpses of that dominant defense teams faced in the 2020 season, but sadly it is a little too late for the Dolphins to turn around the ship this late in the year

Key matchups of week are as follows:

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills

Spread +7.5 (Colts)

Pick Popularity 2%

Win Percentage 25%

The Buffalo Bills are 6-3 and atop the AFC East but haven’t had many impressive victories this year other than beating the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bills have shown inconsistency this year, and I believe picking against them this week could be one of the best plays you can make. On the other side, the Indianapolis Colts are battle tested, winning four of their last five. This game could come down to arguably the best running back in the NFL this season in Jonathan Taylor coming up against the best run defense in the NFL. If the Colts are able to solidify a run game, especially in predictably poor conditions outside, it could be the perfect formula to beat a Bills team who heavily relies on the passing game.

At only 2 percent picked, if you aren’t picking the Colts, be wary of putting the Bills at higher confidence this week.

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spread +1.5 (Saints)

Pick Popularity 45%

Win percentage 46%

In a game that is a coin flip matchup, I am willing to bet the team with a better defense. The New Orleans Saints are facing a team that has relied heavily on running the ball. But the Saints stop the run very well, and Philly has few weapons in the passing game. The Eagles have no wins vs. teams above .500 and have not won at home this year. I am confidently taking the Saints in this Sunday matinee.

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals

Spread +2.5 (Seahawks)

Pick Popularity 33%

Win percentage 41%

Picking the Seahawks over the Cardinals would be my biggest gamble pick of the week. With the uncertainty of Kyler Murray and the Panthers showing every team in the league the formula to beating the Cardinals, I would expect Russell Wilson to bounce back at home after one of the worst performances of his career. The public will also be very low on the Seahawks after their poor play as of late. In a divisional matchup, anything can happen. Therefore, if you need a value gamble pick, this is your game.

Cleveland Browns vs Detroit Lions

Spread -10 (Browns)

Pick Popularity 91%

Win Percentage 82%

Six teams are being picked ahead of the Cleveland Browns this week, while the Browns are one of three teams with a 10 point or more spread. Jared Goff is uncertain to start this week, and the majority of the public are down on the Browns because of last week’s performance. If you need points in your league, put the Browns near the top of your confidence pool, as they have a knack for beating up on non-playoff teams.

Week 1 performance from Devon: 68 points

Week 2 performance from Devon: 82 points

Week 3 performance from Devon: 95 points

Week 4 performance from Devon: 88 points

Week 5 performance from Devon: 102 points

Week 6 performance from Devon: 87 points

Week 7 performance from Devon: 65 points

Week 8 performance from Devon: 65 points

Week 9 performance from Devon: 67 points

Week 10 performance from Devon: 56 points

My Confidence picks:

Win	Loss
15. Tennessee Titans	Houston Texans
14. San Francisco 49ers	Jacksonville Jaguars
13. Cleveland Browns	Detroit Lions
12. New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles
11. Los Angeles Chargers	Pittsburgh Steelers
10. New England Patriots	Atlanta Falcons
9. Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings
8. Carolina Panthers	Washington Football Team
7. Baltimore Ravens	Chicago Bears
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	New York Giants
5. Seattle Seahawks	Arizona Cardinals
4. Indianapolis Colts	Buffalo Bills
3. Kansas City Chiefs	Dallas Cowboys
2. Cincinnati Bengals	Las Vegas Raiders
1. Miami Dolphins	New York Jets

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Start:	November 12, 2024 @ 10:07 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 11

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