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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 4 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Mike Pruitt - 9/27/2021

NFL predictions Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 4 opening line report picks

So, it appears that before we even take the opportunity to recap the betting action from week 3, we must address the big ole elephant hunched down in the corner over there. Tom Brady, this week, will make his long-awaited return to New England to play his former team of nearly 20 years.

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Tom is just one half of this equation, though, or was he more or maybe less? These are questions that people will debate until the end of time. This is also the first time the New England Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick will welcome Tom back to the bright lights of Gillette Stadium.

I am actually one of the very few people that were indifferent to the New England Patriots over the years. I didn't despise them or love them like most people. My Redskins were always bad enough that I spent most of my time hating on the Dallas Cowboys more than anything.

I have to admit, though, that I am elated we finally get to see this go down on a Sunday night in prime time. Tom vs Bill's defense. It's only happened more than a million times already in practice over the years, but I can't help it. This is a big game, and most NFL fans will be front and center.

What does this one look like from a betting perspective?

We will get to that in just a moment. I also want to look at a couple of other games, one being this Thursday's matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals. I know this seems like a let-down from Brady returning to New England, and that is because it is.

There isn’t a better storyline in sports that is going to beat this Sunday night’s football. It does feel like yesterday, though, when Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow were dueling it out on college football’s biggest stage. These two will lead their respective teams into battle. It isn’t for a trophy this time, but it is the big leagues and these two have the potential to be great one day. Therefore, I like the Thursday nighttime slot as well this week.

Let’s get to these betting lines and make some early predictions to hopefully get ahead of some sharp movement.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5, 46)

That’s right, the Cincinnati Bengals are favored by more than a touchdown on the road. That is just madness if you have been paying any level of attention to the NFL over the past 5 decades. The Bengals are an atrocious franchise and always have been.

Bad ownership will do that to you. I know these things. Redskins fan, remember. Our situation isn’t much different in DC with Daniel. I digress, though. Light and hopes haven’t been this bright in Southwestern Ohio since Boomer.

I do believe I understand the sportsbooks here. Jacksonville, as a team, is not on the level of the Bengals but at home, and all they need to do is stay within 7?

I think I can get behind that. There is only one problem.

Sunshine. Yup, nothing screams covering 7.5 like picking off a rookie quarterback several times. Trevor has thrown 7 so far in three games this year. Will the Bengals' defensive backfield be able to bury his hopes of beating Joe Burrow again?

Well, Cincy is -1 in turnover ratio through the first three games of the year. And if Trevor can stay away from Logan Wilson's side of the field, he might fare alright. The Bengals have only 3 picks on defense this year, but Logan has all of them, as well as 3 pass deflections to boot.

Trevor is going to have to steer clear of No. 55.

That being said, I don’t think it will be up to him. I can see Joe Burrow carving up the Jags, who have yet to score a victory this year. It sounds crazy, but I think the Bengals cover this week.

Pick: Bengals

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots (-6.5, 49)

Brady might be the one looking good right now after having left his longtime team and head coach and won a Super Bowl ring on his first try for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but that means Bill is bitter.

Bill Bitterchick, boy, I am telling you guys...Last week’s game likely meant zero to the future hall of fame head coach. Next week’s game is definitely next week’s game. This guy is focused and locked in to beat Brady.

I just want to know if New England is going to stay within 6 points. Tampa is very limited defending the deep ball, but New England doesn’t have the style to exploit that. They don’t have Matthew Stafford either.

I think Tom was thinking ahead this past Sunday as well. They both lost. Now, it’s time.

Give me TB12 for the touchdown lead when the clock strikes zero.

Pick: New England

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