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NCAA Football Predictions: Week 9 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Chris Vasile - 10/25/2021

NCAA football predictions Week 9 Cade Brewer Texas Longhorns

There are around four games left in the regular season for most teams, and now is the time that teams start to get desperate for wins to reach the coveted six-win mark and earn a bowl bid. With that information, it’s time to start paying close attention to a team’s motivation and bet accordingly. A team that is down and out at say, 2-5 or 3-4, may not give that extra effort depending on who they are playing and how disappointing the season has been. A team sitting one or two games away from a Bowl game might just try and pull out all the stops to get the win. This could include trick plays or going for it a bunch on fourth down. Keep this in mind over the last month of the season and you should be in good shape.

As far as last week’s results go, we should have gone 4-0 for the second consecutive week but we fell victim to a fourth-quarter collapse by Fresno State. The Bulldogs were in control of the game vs Nevada the entire way, but Nevada scored a touchdown with two seconds left to pull within two points, thus blowing the -4.5 cover. Elsewhere, Pittsburgh dominated Clemson and the Oregon Ducks defense made the extra play – which I knew would come to fruition. And lastly, Notre Dame easily dispatched USC to move to 6-1 on the season.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans +3.5, 51.5

It has been a very long time since we’ve got to experience a Michigan/Michigan State game that actually means something. If my memory serves correct, you’d have to go back to the infamous blocked punt and touchdown return by the Spartans to the last time both teams were relevant. That is until Saturday’s meeting. Both teams are currently 7-0 on the season, but it’s the Wolverines who are ahead in the rankings as they sit at No. 6. The Spartans are not too far behind as they check in at No. 9 and if the Spartans can pull off the small upset, they could find themselves inching closer to a College Football Playoff berth with just four games left to go in the season. Either way, the winner of this game will be undefeated but must still go head-to-head with Ohio State, and we know that’s no walk in the park. As for this contest, I believe the Wolverines are the more complete team and I believe their defense will make one more play and limit what the Spartans can do offensively. I’ll lay the points in this one.

Pick: Michigan -3.5

Oregon State Beavers @ California Bruins +1.5, 56

Oregon State is quietly having an amazing season. The Beavers are sitting at 5-2 in the Pac 12, and that has them in first place in the North Division. They are coming off a great win against a Utah team that many people respect and now have their sights set on not only getting to six wins and reaching a bowl game but reaching the Pac-12 title game. And for what it’s worth, I believe it’s more than doable for this Beavers squad. If you look at the remaining schedule, the Beavers have games against a bad Colorado team, a brutal Stanford team and then Arizona State and Oregon to close out the season. While those games will be tough, the Beavers could put themselves in a great position with three straight wins heading into that matchup. As for California, well they are a 2-5 team that doesn’t really do anything well. Offensively, they are okay, while on defense they are ranked in the upper 100s in terms of major defensive statistics. With the way the Beavers are playing right now, and the confidence they have, I’m going to take them on the road here at this short price.

Pick: Oregon State -1.5

Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes -17.5, 59.5

After starting the year 5-0, the Penn State Nittany Lions have dropped two straight games, including a brutal nine-overtime loss to unranked Illinois. The Nittany Lions need to find a way to regroup from that loss in a hurry as they now have to travel to the Horseshoe to take on an Ohio State squad that is humming along right now. The Buckeyes have won five straight games and come into this one off a 54-7 beatdown of Indiana. The line for this contest opened with the Buckeyes laying -12.5, but it’s quickly been bet up to -17.5, and with good reason. I simply do not see the Nittany Lions’ defense stopping the Buckeyes offense, nor do I see the Nittany Lions scoring more than three touchdowns in this contest. I’ll lay the points in what should be another Ohio State romp.

Pick: Ohio State -17.5

Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears -2.5 62

It’s always a good time when you can make fun of Texas for “being back.” The Longhorns might be one of the most polarizing programs in the entirety of college football. And with no success to speak of over the last decade or so, it’s no wonder fans poke fun of them on a consistent basis. The Longhorns had a stretch of three games from Week 3 to Week 5 where they put up 160 points and gave up just 62. In Week 6 and Week 7, they’ve given up 87 points, and the defense looks like the walking equivalent of Swiss Cheese – so many holes. Against Baylor, that’s going to be a major problem. The Bears are a really good 6-1 team, and they rank No. 16 in the country coming into this game. The offense ranks inside the Top 25 in total yards, rushing yards and points per game, which is going to give the Longhorns’ defense fits. The difference in this game will be the defense, as Baylor has an exponentially better stop unit than the Longhorns. Baylor at home, at less than a field goal, you have to lay it. This is my best bet of the year.

Pick: Baylor -2.5

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