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NCAA Football Mid-Major Free Betting Picks: Florida Atlantic Owls Week 6

by Chris Vasile - 10/7/2021

college football picks Johnny Ford Florida Atlantic Owls week 6 mid major predictions

If you aren’t familiar with the “zig-zag” theory in sports betting, I suggest looking it up. It’s most commonly used in the NBA Playoffs as the theory states to take exactly the opposite of what happened in the previous game. For example, if the underdog covered in Game 1, the favorite would be the play to cover in Game 2. In football, the Zig-Zag theory can hold water, but it’s a lot harder to predict as the games are weekly not every other day. I’ve been zigging and zagging on the Owls for over five weeks now, and we’ve made little progress. I want to trust them enough to back them this week, but the zig-zag theory, which has been right all along, tells me I shouldn’t. Nonetheless, this week’s game vs UAB should be a good one, and I’m excited to watch it.

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Week 6 vs UAB

As of writing this, the Owls have been tabbed as a 4.5-points with the total set at 49. This line opened at Blazers -5 and has since been bet down half a point, which is understandable given the results of Week 5. FAU had a good win, while UAB was trounced on their home turf vs Liberty. It’ll be interesting to see which team shows up and competes for a full 60 minutes.

It seems to me that just when I count out the Owls’ defense, they respond in a big way and limit a team to minimal offense and win the game outright. That’s what the Owls did last week against an FIU team that does in fact have a good offense but was limited to just 388 yards and 21 points. The defense forced a turnover, something it very rarely does, and it sparked a great offensive display.

Offensively, the Owls were dominant. They owned the time of possession and turned their 37:33 into 708 total yards of offense, 296 of which game via the ground game, while 408 yards came through the air. They doubled up FIU on first downs, notching 30, and after 14-14 early in the second quarter, the Owls simply never looked back.

N’Kosi Perry had a big day with 329 passing yards and three touchdowns (also ran for one touchdown), while Johnny Ford toted the rock 16 times for 102 and two scores. Je’Quan Burton was N’Kosi’s favorite target, catching all seven targets for 121 yards and a score. Can this offense put together two good games in a row? That’s the question that hasn’t been answered yet. They should be able to do it given the fact that UAB is coming off a loss in which they gave up 544 yards and 36 points. UAB also allowed Liberty to get five sacks, something the Owls will need to take advantage of if they want to push their record to 4-2.

Look, at the end of the day, both teams desperately need this win if they have hopes of reaching the six-win mark and collecting a paycheck to go to a bowl game. UAB is at home, and to me that gives them a bit of an advantage here.

Series History: This will be the eighth all-time meeting between these two programs, and it’s the Owls that have the edge in victories as they have five compared to two by UAB. The first meeting came back in 2008, while the last meeting came in 2019 and ended with a lopsided 49-6 win for the Owls.

Florida Atlantic at UAB Football Picks

I want to be able to trust the Owls to put together a great road game plan and attack the Blazers’ defense, but I just don’t see them doing it for a full 60 minutes. I also saw what they did on the road vs Air Force, and that was a complete disaster as they simply forget to get off the bus in time for the start of the game. UAB will be in desperation mode to not lose two in a row and fall to 3-3 on the season, and something tells me the Owls’ defense is not going to play as good as it did last week. I want to give you a selection, but with the spread so low, I can see this game going either way. If you wanted to play it, take the Over as I see both teams scoring in the upper 20s in this contest as they pull out all the stops to try and get a big win.

Selection: Pass.

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