Monday Night Football Predictions Week 4: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

by Chris Vasile - 10/2/2021

Monday Night Football picks Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers

Last Monday’s game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys was over before it even began. The Cowboys jumped out to an early lead and never looked back. The only people interested in the final score of the contest were those that made live in-game wagers. I’ll give credit where it’s due, though. The Cowboys played extremely well, and the Eagles are who we thought they were, and that is not a very good team. I have a feeling that this week’s Monday night contest between the Raiders and Chargers is going to be electric and filled with twists and turns for the entire 60 minutes.

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As of writing this, the Chargers are currently 3.5-point favorites with the total set at 51.5. This line opened up at Chargers -3 and has since been bet up a half-point. I fully understand the line movement as we saw the Chargers go toe-to-toe with the Kansas City Chiefs and eventually beat them on a last-second touchdown. The Raiders, on the other hand, struggled against a Dolphins team that was starting their backup quarterback. This could be a trap line, but the Chargers definitely deserve the favorite status.

Storylines to follow

Electric Season? In any other season, the Chargers would have lost last week’s game to the Chiefs. The Chargers have garnered an unwanted reputation of a team that can’t win close ball games as seen by their 0-8 record last season in games decided by less than eight points. This year, through three games, the Chargers 2-1, with all three games decided by less than a touchdown. Are they finally turning the page? Well, Chargers’ fans would hope so as they have a solid team from top to bottom with some great talent on both sides of the football. Last week’s win against the Chiefs was a statement win for them not only within the division but to the rest of the league, that on their day the Chargers are a scary team to play against. The question remains if the Chargers continue to win close ball games and put to bed the notion that they can’t close out games or win one-possession games. Through three games, the answer seems to be yes, but a very difficult game looms against another division foe in the Raiders on Monday night.

Just win, baby! The Raiders gave a lot of people heartburn on Sunday by blowing a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to the Dolphins, who were starting their backup quarterback. They did get the win in overtime after trading field goals with the Dolphins early, before hitting a 22-yard winner with three seconds left on the clock. It wasn’t pretty by any stretch of the imagination. However, as the mantra goes, just win, baby. The Raiders will need to be better defensively if they want to keep their perfect 3-0 record intact as the Chargers pose a threat every time they have the ball on offense. I do believe the Raiders can exchange blows with the Chargers on offense, but sooner or later the defense is going to need to step up and make a play if the Raiders want to continue to build towards a winning season, perhaps one that leads them to the playoffs. The Raiders didn’t cover last week, but they don’t care. Just win, baby!

Angles and Trends:

If you like the Raiders and are going to take the points, you are banking on the following:

Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday games.
Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs the AFC West.
Chargers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last four on Monday night.
Chargers are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite.

If you like the Chargers and want to lay the points, these trends are for you:

Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs the AFC West.
Chargers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five October games.
Raiders are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 October games
Raiders are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 following an SU win.

If you are thinking about betting the total, these are the important trends to know:

Under is 16-4-1 in the last 21 meetings in LA.
Under is 6-2 in Raiders last 8 games as a road underdog
Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 Monday games.
Under is 4-0 in Chargers last four games as home favorite
Under is 5-2 in Chargers last seven Monday games.

Prediction

We nailed last week’s selection of the Cowboys -4 and are excited about keeping the winning going this Monday. We are going to actually grab the points with the Raiders as we see this spot setting up well for them. Look, I give credit where credit is due. The Chargers held their own against the Chiefs and went on to beat them, which made a statement within the division. However, now they must come back against another division foe, and the “oomph” just might not be there for them. Justin Herbert was banged up towards the end of the game with his throwing hand, and Keenan Allen is his usual slow but productive self. They should be in line to put up some points. However, the Raiders, despite their defensive flaws, can put up points too, and we see this game turning into a track meet with the team who possesses the ball last is likely to win.

Pick: Las Vegas +3.5

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Monday Night Football Predictions Week 4: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

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