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Monday Night Football Predictions Week 16: Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints

by Chris Vasile - 12/24/2021

Monday Night Football predictions Week 16 Ian Book New Orleans Saints

Last week’s Monday Night Football game felt like we were in Week 1 of the NFL season. We were treated to not one, but two football games, and both of them were absolutely terrible to watch. At this point in the season, and with COVID running rampant through the NFL, it’s not the teams’ fault that they were put in this position to perform so poorly. The NFL has done a terrible job of enforcing the rules, or at the very least postponing games appropriately so that teams could try and field a team worthy of giving us 60 minutes of good football. This week should be much of the same with COVID still an ongoing issue. And as of right now, we still only have the one Monday night game between the Dolphins and Saints.

As of writing this, the Dolphins are currently -1.5-point favorites with the total set at 35. This line was originally set as Saints -3. However, with the news of Taysom Hill being out due to COVID, the line jumped the fence and the Fins are now favorites. The total has also dropped four points from the opening line of 39. The Dolphins come into this contest off a win vs the Jets, while the Saints come in off a win vs the Bucs. Which team do you trust more when the chips are down?

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Storylines to follow

One Last Push: For the Dolphins, it must feel like they’ve been on this narrative for the last two months or so. They have managed to erase a 1-7 start and pull themselves back to .500, but it’s going to take a lot of things going right for them to actually have a shot at sneaking into the playoffs via the wild card. They have two teams in front of them with seven wins and then four teams are tied at 8-6, with the Ravens being the odd one out of the playoff picture heading into this week. However, the Dolphins – with the loss last week by the Patriots – have the second-longest winning streak in the NFL right now at six games. They are playing some great and inspired football, and Tua Tagovailoa Is finally starting to live up to some of the hype and make the right reads and decisions. Going on the road for this game will be a tough ask for a team that is 2-4 on the road, but I don’t believe the Saints have enough offense to beat a very hot Dolphins team right now.

One Last Push (Take 2): Speaking of the Saints, they are also sitting at 7-7 on the season, but they are tied with the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles for the final wild-card spot in the NFC. The Saints and Eagles are the teams on the outside looking in at the moment. And with just three games left in the regular season, it’s now or never for the Saints. The Saints were buoyed by a shocking win last week against the Bucs, and perhaps a letdown is in order for this team as they face a non-conference opponent. I know they have Alvin Kamara back in the lineup, but he’s just not “right” at the moment. And with Ian Book starting at QB, the Saints’ offense leaves a lot to be desired.

Angles and Trends:

If you like Saints and are going to take the points, you are banking on the following:

  • Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 16
  • Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in December
  • Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points
  • Dolphins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Monday games
  • Dolphins are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss

If you like the Dolphins and want to lay the points, these trends are for you:  

  • Dolphins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games
  • Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring more than 30 points in their last game
  • Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 6 Monday games
  • Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win

If you are thinking about betting the total, these are the important trends to know:

  • Under is 5-2 in Dolphins’ last 7 games overall
  • Under is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 games following a straight up win
  • Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games overall
  • Over is 7-3 in Saints last 10 Monday games
  • Under is 7-3 in Saints last 10 games on field turf
  • Over is 9-3 in Dolphins last 12 games following an ATS loss.

Prediction

We found the win column once again last week with the Vikings covering the -5-5 spread despite allowing Chicago to score a late meaningless touchdown. This week we are sticking the road team in this contest as we are riding the hot-handed Dolphins as they continue their late push towards a wild card spot. Look, the Dolphins are rolling right now, and I don’t believe the Saints win against the Bucs is worth its weight because the Bucs were missing two key receivers for almost the entire game and the Saints just have their number. Based on the trends above, I think the Dolphins have what it takes in terms of talent to go into the Superdome and come away with a very big win. 

Pick: Dolphins -1.5

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