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Monday Night Football Predictions Week 11: New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by Chris Vasile - 11/20/2021

Monday Night Football predictions Week 11 Daniel Jones New York Giants

In yet another twist on Monday Night Football, the Super Bowl favorites (at the time), Los Angeles, forgot how to play football for 60 minutes and were run out of Levi’s Stadium by the host 49ers. It was yet another prime example of a team not being as good -- or as bad -- as their previous game showed. Hindsight is 20/20. However, if you really dug deep into this contest, you’d see that the Rams lost Robert Woods a few days before game day, OBJ had only two or three practices, and they have no running game to speak of. Of course, the Niners were going to limit them on offense because they simply did not have proper personnel or prep for this game. Let’s take a deeper look into this week’s contest between the Giants and Buccaneers.

As of writing this, the Bucs are currently -11-point favorites with the total set at 49.5. This line opened at Bucs -12.5 but has since been bet down, and with good reason. The Giants are off a bye week and prior to that handled Carolina with ease, while the Bucs have lost two in a row and the defense has looked awful. It’ll be interesting to see which team dictates the play and controls the line of scrimmage in this one. 

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Storylines to follow

Giants Part Two: A few weeks back, we were on the Giants plus the points as they headed to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs. They were getting +11 points, and we thought they could do enough to keep them in the game until the final quarter. They pulled through for us, but we don’t see that being the case this week. The Giants, while rested, are going to run into a very angry Bucs team, and we don’t see the Giants’ 24th ranked defense being able to keep the Bucs from putting up a ton of points. The Giants are also nowhere near capable of scoring at will on the Bucs defense. Therefore, even with an extra week of prep, the Giants are facing an uphill climb in this one.

Anchored Down: Is it time to panic yet? That’s the question some are asking about the Bucs, and I believe that question is extremely premature. The Bucs were poor against the Saints, then had a bye and came out sloppy against Washington. We’ve seen teams all season long come out of their bye week and look lethargic and ultimately lose the game. The Bucs are now riding a two-game losing streak and will be desperate to end the skid and start playing well heading into December. The offense should have no issues putting up points on a weak Giants’ defense, and I expect a dominant display in front of their home crowd to get the momentum going before they head out on the road for their next two games.

Angles and Trends:

If you like Giants and are going to take the points, you are banking on the following:

  • Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 November games
  • Giants are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games
  • Giants are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog
  • Giants are 9-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs NFC opposition.
  • Giants are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Tampa Bay
  • Bucs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite
  • Bucs are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 Monday games.

If you like the Bucs and want to lay the points, these trends are for you:  

  • Bucs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games
  • Bucs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite
  • Bucs are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 11
  • Bucs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss.
  • Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 following an ATS win
  • Giants are 2-5-1 in their last 8 games in Week 11.

If you are thinking about betting the total, these are the important trends to know:

  • Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 games as an underdog
  • Under is 8-1 in Giants last 9 games following an ATS win
  • Under is 7-3 in Giants last 10 Monday night games.
  • Over is 6-1 in Bucs last 7 home games vs a team with a losing road record
  • Over is 6-2 in Bucs last 8 Monday night games
  • Over is 7-3 in Bucs last 10 games in November

Prediction

We missed with last week’s selection on the Rams -3.5, so let’s try and bounce back with a winner this week. I can’t help myself but believe the Giants don’t have it in them to cover two straight appearances on Monday Night Football. They do come into this game rested off a bye and with extra time to prep and put a solid game plan together, but we can’t see them hanging tight with the Bucs all game long. The Bucs have looked a bit sloppy over the last two games, losing both to Washington and New Orleans on either side of their bye week. Those are two teams they should easily beat, and what has been the common denominator in both of those losses? The defense has given up 29+ points. However, this is a Bucs team that is a veteran-laden squad, and they know they need to right the ship before heading out on the road for two tricky road games. Look for Tampa to dominate this game and win by double-digits.

Pick: Tampa Bay -11

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