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AFC Championship Game Betting Picks: Best Props Bills at Chiefs

by Chris Vasile - 1/22/2021

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, Arrowhead Stadium, 6:40 p.m. EST. Jan 24, 2021.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Right after this article was published it was reported Mahomes will play in Sunday's AFC Championship Game.

When the Bills take on the Chiefs in Sunday’s AFC Championship game, it will mark the fourth ever meeting between the two franchises in postseason history. The Bills own a 2-1 record in those matchups, with the Chiefs only win coming in the AFL Championship back in 1967. As a franchise, this game will mark the sixth time the Bills will compete in the AFC Championship Game and they hold a 4-1 record. I’m sure we all know that those four wins were followed up by Super Bowl losses from the 1990 to 1993 seasons. As for the Chiefs, this will be their fourth trip to the AFC title game, and they own a 1-2 record all time.

As of writing this, the Chiefs are favorite by three points and the total is set at 54. That point spread is really vulnerable right now as both teams await the status of Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes suffered a possible concussion in the third quarter of last week’s game against the Browns and has “cleared” big steps in the early part of the week, but he still has a way to go to suit up. If Mahomes is out, the spread will likely flip in favor of the Bills. However, if he suits up and plays, the spread may rise. Instead of focusing on the side or total, we’ll focus on some props that we believe have a great chance of turning a profit.

Team Total Points

Buffalo Bills – “Over” 24.5 -120, “Under” 24.5, -120

From every weather report I’ve seen, there does not appear to be snow in the forecast. In fact, the temperature will be just above the freezing mark and we are fully okay with trusting Josh Allen in this temperature. As an offense, the Bills have been among the best units in all of football this season, and they are perhaps the only team in the AFC that can trade points with the Chiefs and still expect to win. If we throw out last week’s weird low-scoring game vs the Ravens, the Bills have hit the 25 points mark nine straight games. The last time they failed to hit 25 points was in Week 8 vs the Patriots when they had 24. This week, the Bills know they are going to have to pull out all the stops if they are to earn their way into Super Bowl LV. We also like the way these two teams stack up against each other as the Chiefs’ defense has been suspect of late and doesn’t exactly rate out very well in the team rankings. If Mahomes plays for the Chiefs, that will only boost the value of this prop. If he’s out, the Bills will want to jump out to an early lead and build on it steadily throughout the game. Either way I see them scoring at least 28.

Pick: Over 24.5 -120

Player Passing Yards

Josh Allen - “Over” 306.5 -112, “Under” 306.5, -112

I love what Josh Allen has done this year. He’s led the Bills to a spot in the AFC Championship Game by way of his arm and his legs. He’s just as much of a threat to run the football as he is to throw the ball 40 yards downfield. He could have very well won the MVP award this season if Aaron Rodgers was retired. In this contest, I believe this total is still a bit too high, and here’s why. For starters, he’s only topped this mark in nine of 18 games this season. Yes, that’s 50 percent. However, when you think of Allen, you think of him slinging the ball all over the field, which is not the case. Secondly, the Chiefs are the most vulnerable on defense in the run game. They have the 21st-ranked rushing defense compared to the 14th-ranked passing defense. While that’s not a huge disparity, the Bills know that if they can get out to an early lead – with or without a hobbled Mahomes – it would be to their benefit to keep the clock moving and shorten the game as much as possible. The Bills don’t need to throw for 350 yards to score 28 points. Their defense can contribute like it did last week, and the run game can pick up the scraps down closer to the redzone. Look for Allen to be effective, but to stay within himself in this contest for the betterment of the team.

Pick: Under 306.5 passing yards

Rushing Yards

Devin Singletary - “Over” 39.5 -112, “Under” 39.5, -112

This prop selection piggybacks off the above selection. The Chiefs run defense is the weakness in the chain, and the Bills would be idiotic not to attack it. Josh Allen will have his moments to throw the ball down field and find Diggs and Beasley, but Singletary may be the X-factor as the run game will not only move the chains but keep the clock going and keep the Chiefs’ offense on the sideline. If the Bills can’t get their run game going, Allen may find it tough to navigate seven guys in coverage. Look for Singletary to have at least 50 or so yards on the ground in this one.

Pick: Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

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