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Titans vs. Patriots Predictions for Best NFL Prop Bets


by Chris Vasile - 1/3/2020

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots; Gillette Stadium, 8:15 p.m. EST. Jan 4, 2020.

In a somewhat surprising scheduling quirk, the NFL has decided to put both AFC games on the same day, and so we get the Titans and Patriots in primetime on Saturday night. I don't mind that move from the perspective of the entire sports world getting to see the Patriots lose a playoff game at home for the first time in what seems like four million years.

The Titans come into this game as one of the hottest teams in the league, essentially needing to win out in order to secure their playoff spot. The Titans won five of seven down the stretch thanks to a reinvigorated Ryan Tannehill, a dominant Derrick Henry and an opportunistic defense. From a strictly stats perspective, the Titans won't blow you away as they rank 12th in total yards, 23 rd in passing yards, third in rushing yards, 10th in points per game and 18th in third-down percentage. They are extremely efficient in the red zone. And with Henry running the ball behind a solid offensive line, the Titans use play-action with great success. Defensively, the Titans are 21st in total yards, 24th in passing yards, 12th in rushing yards, 12th in points allowed and 8th in third-down percentage. That unit is going to need to step up in a big way to keep pace with the New England defense if it plays up to its capabilities.

As for the Patriots, they come into this game off a brutal loss to the Dolphins where they were completely outplayed and outgained by a bad Dolphins team. All they had to do was win that game to avoid playing this week, but here we are. The Patriots defense leads the way as it ranks first in total yards, points and third-down percentage allowed, second in passing yards and sixth in rushing yards against. The offense looks like a shell of the Patriots teams we've come to expect. Therefore, if the Titans defense steps up and is able to get constant pressure on Brady, the Patriots offense will buckle.

As of writing this, the Patriots are listed as five-point favorites, with the total set at 44. I'll be taking the Titans on the ML at +185 but will be backing it up with some great props that fade the Patriots as well.

Team Total Points - Tennessee Titans "Over" 8.5 First Half Points (-120)

This is extremely low and is essentially telling us that the Patriots are going to dominate right from the kickoff and hold the Titans to under 10 points in the first half. The Patriots haven't held an opponent to under nine points in the first half since Week 12 versus Dallas and prior to that Week 8 versus Cleveland. The Titans will have a game plan that will limit the time Brady spends on the field, and they will run Henry down the throats of the Patriots as that is their lone weakness. You have to believe that Tannehill will be chomping at the bit to finally get the better of the Patriots after taking several beatings while he was still in Miami. I'm going to be all over the Titans in this one, and it's going to either be a glorious Saturday night or a terrible one, there's no in-between. Ten points is certainly doable for a Titans team that's scored at least 10 first-half points in three of their last four games.

Total Team Touchdowns - Tennessee Titans "Over" 1.5 (-200)

This one is a little on the higher end in terms of juice, but it's going to be a winner. The Titans are going to be able to move the ball on this Patriots team because the Patriots defense simply cannot continue to play at the level they've played at the entire season. We saw last week what a great game plan can do against them as Ryan Fitzpatrick and the three stooges put up 27 points on them in their own stadium. The Titans actually have good players surrounding Tannehill, and they will move the ball and find the endzone at least twice in this game.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer - Derrick Henry (-125)

We are all in on the Titans in this matchup as we believe they stack up well against the Patriots and are in a good position to knock the defending champions off their perch. How else are the Titans going to win this game? They are going to need to score points. And as per the props above, we believe they score early and often to stun the Foxboro crowd en route to a monumental win against the Patriots. We told you that Tannehill is going to play well in a revenge game against the Patriots, but they are going to need to have their bell-cow running back going and producing at a high rate. Henry has found the endzone in six of his last seven games, racking up 11 touchdowns in that span. If the Patriots have a weak point in their defense, is the run defense, and we can see Henry finding pay-dirt from the goaline or busting one for a big play to change the momentum of the game.

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