Super Bowl Touchdown Props: Advice and Expert Predictions

by Trevor Whenham - 1/24/2020

Kansas City Chiefs running back Damien Williams

Is this Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers going to be a high scoring affair? Will points come in bulk like they have for both teams in the playoffs? Or will the extra time to prepare for the game be a boost to the defenses? If you have an opinion about that one way or the other, then Super Bowl total touchdown props are a good way to exploit them. Here are some 49ers vs. Chiefs predictions for the big game on Super Bowl Sunday.

Total touchdowns

The total in the game sits at 54 in early betting action. You can get to that number in any number of ways, but seven touchdowns would be 49 points, which would get you most of the way there. If the teams combined for only six touchdowns, then they would also need four field goals to hit that number, or five to go over. So, if you like the over in this game, then you probably have to expect at least six touchdowns. Fewer than that would be asking a whole lot from the kickers. So, let's use that as a starting point.

You can bet two numbers pretty widely right now - over/under 5.5 touchdowns or 6.5. The 5.5 number has the over at -165, and the under at +120. If you like the over, then you are probably better off looking elsewhere given the cost. You could look at the 6.5, or you could just bet the over on the game total since they are fairly closely related and the price there is much better - I've seen as low as -108 on the over right now. The over for the 6.5 total is at +110, which would be attractive if you think that the 5.5 number is far too low and you are feeling offensively bullish in this game. On the other side, if you like the under here, then the under 5.5 at +120 would be more attractive if you can swing it than the under 6.5 at -150.

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Total touchdowns by the 49ers

You can bet totals of 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 here. Obviously, you aren't getting much of a return if you go over the lowest number - it is at -600. Over 2.5 is at -175 and over 3.5 is at +140. The 49ers have scored at least three touchdowns in 15 of their 18 games this year and at least two in all but one. The only time they went under the total was in their 9-0 win over the Redskins - a game that is right up there in the running for the worst games of the NFL season. That game, though, was played in driving rain and intense wind, which very much impacted the game. Chances are very strong that we won't see the same thing in Miami for this game. So, while nothing is a lock, it feels like over 1.5 is pretty close to one, and the price isn't entirely as horrible as it seems at first glance. Over 2.5 is a pretty reasonable proposition at that price, too - not a get rich quick scheme, but playable if you are optimistic about the team and you want to play it. Over 3.5 could be in play if you are optimistic as well. The team went over that total nine times in 16 regular season games, and once so far in two playoff games - more than often enough to generate a healthy profit at this price. The Chiefs are a very good team, but not one that wins by pure defense, so the Niners should be able to score.

Total touchdowns by the Chiefs

The same three totals are available here, with prices on the over of -600, -190 and +135, respectively. When we look at their season, I am going to ignore the three games that Mahomes missed - Matt Moore under center is not any indication of what this team can be, so it is not relevant. In the remaining 15 games, the Chiefs went over 3.5 touchdowns in a game nine times. That would pay off handsomely at this price, but you have to consider that this is a much better defense than most that they have faced and adjust accordingly. I still think the value is in the over here because I am generally bullish on both offenses in this game and expect a pretty wide-open style of play. They went under the 1.5 total just once in the 15 games, when the Chiefs lost 19-13 to the Colts and Mahomes had just one TD pass. He still threw for 321 yards in that game, so the lack of touchdowns was a little odd. Given that, the over 1.5 again seems fairly attractive despite - or at least playable - despite the -600 price.

Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 2:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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Super Bowl Touchdown Props: Advice and Expert Predictions

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