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Super Bowl Quarterback Props and QB Predictions


by Trevor Whenham - 1/25/2020

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes

The quarterback matchup is very intriguing in the Super Bowl. Just like pretty much everything else about the game is. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback on the planet at this moment, and that is really something to say in this age and given that he has only played two seasons. But it is very much true. And while Jimmy Garoppolo isn't nearly as flashy or productive, all he does is win when he plays. When the quarterbacks are interesting in this game then it is a given that the Super Bowl quarterback passing props are going to be interesting. This year is no exception. So, let's provide some 49ers vs. Chiefs picks for the Super Bowl.

Patrick Mahomes over/under 304.5 passing yards

This is an interesting number. An aggressive one. San Francisco had the top pass defense in the league in the regular season. But Aaron Rodgers threw for 326 yards against them last time out even when his team was playing poorly, so there are yards to be had. And Mahomes is dialed in, averaging 307.5 yards per game in the playoffs despite taking the first quarter off in both games for the most part. Mahomes is going to find some yards. I have no doubt about that. Mahomes went over this total eight times in the 15 full games he has played this year, but only three times in the last 10 and once in the last four. I lean to the under, but I wouldn't bet my house on it.

Jimmy Garoppolo over/under 239.5 passing yards

Garoppolo went over this number 10 times in 18 games this season, so he is certainly capable. But his playoff best is just 131 yards, so passing isn't front and center for this team right now. At one point this season, Garoppolo threw 45 passes to beat Arizona one week and then just 20 to beat up on Green Bay next time out. You can never know what the team is going to do, and that makes it very tough to bet props like this with any confidence. I lean to the over, but only because it would feel wrong not to take a stance of some type. I don't think there is a number of passing yards that Garoppolo could post in this game that would surprise me. That's not a good argument for betting on this prop.

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Which QB will have the most passing yards? Mahomes -160, Garoppolo +175

A quick breakdown of this price tells us that there is about a 61 percent chance - at least according to these odds - that Mahomes will have the bigger day. If you think he is more likely to do so than that, then you would bet on him, and if you don't, you would bet on Garoppolo. There is no particularly precise way to measure what the chances are. What we can do to at least get an idea, though, is to look at weeks they both played in to see how many Mahomes had more yards. This is far from perfect, of course, because things like the opponent and the conditions of the game varies wildly. But it at least gives us a sense of whether the number here makes sense. And things are pretty decisive. The guys have played full games on the same weekend (I excluded when Mahomes was hurt and the week when one team played on Thursday) 14 times this year. Mahomes had the higher passing total in 11 of those weeks. That's about 78.5 percent of games. So, if you wanted to argue that the value is on Mahomes at this price, I wouldn't argue with you.

 

Mahomes passing TDs - o/u 2.5

Mahomes has gone over this total in both playoff games - emphatically so in the Houston game. But before that, he hadn't gone over since November 10 - his first game back from injury - when he had three. He threw one touchdown pass four times and two twice in the games after that. And the Chiefs won all six of those games. He doesn't need to go crazy in order for his team to win. And this San Francisco team can play some defense. I would lean to the under, but there isn't a ton of value here given his recent form.

Garoppolo passing TDs - o/u 1.5

Garoppolo has gone over this relatively modest total just seven times in 18 games this season. The last time was December 8 when threw four scores against the Saints. He also had four games this year where he threw no touchdown passes. His team won all four - including the last time out against Green Bay. This team does not need to rely on Garoppolo's arm. The under is the right play here, and it is far more attractive than the Mahomes under is despite the fact we get one less touchdown here.

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