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NFL Championship Round Picks: Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers Props


by Chris Vasile - 1/16/2020

Green Bay Packers kicker Mason Crosby

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers; Levi's Stadium, 6:40 p.m. EST. Jan 19, 2020.

The 2020 NFC Championship Game will be a rematch of Week 12 when the San Francisco 49ers host the Green Bay Packers . In that Week 12 game, the Niners blew out the Packers by a score of 37-8, and the score was indicative of how dominant the Niners were. The Packers were held to just 198 total yards of offense despite possessing the ball for 35:16 to the Niners' 24:44. The question that begs to be asked is will that game have any effect on the NFC Championship Game? I think both teams will make the adjustments necessary to win. However, at the end of the day, when a trip to the Super Bowl is on the line, you are focused on what's in front of you and not what happened in the past.

We saw how good the 49ers were defensively against the Vikings. They most certainly lived up to their rankings of second in yards allowed, first in passing yards allowed, 17th in rushing yards allowed, eighth in points allowed, and second in third-down conversions allowed. Some of you will optimistic about the team's ability and believe they can shut down Aaron Rodgers, while some of you may take the performance with a grain of salt and say Minnesota is a terrible offensive team. Either way, the defense is going to have to play extremely well if they want to earn their first trip to the Super Bowl in ages.

As for the Packers, they didn't get to 13-3 and earn a bye for the first week of the playoffs by fluke. I would agree with those who say that from a statistical perspective on offense, the Packers' numbers don't do them any justice as they rank 18th in total yards, 17th in passing yards, 15th in rushing yards, 15th in points per game and 21st in third-down conversions. It's the intangibles and experience that they bring to the table that gets them over the hump, and it could very well be the reason they get back to the Super Bowl. Defensively, they are going to need to be at their very best if they want to slow down the machine that is the 49ers' offense. Statistically, the Packers the sit 18th in total yards allowed, 14th in passing yards allowed, 23rd in rushing yards, ninth in points allowed and 15th in stopping teams on third down.

As of writing this, the 49ers are favored by 7.5 points and the total is set at 45. The 49ers could be a great teaser option in order to get them down to under the key number of three using a six-point teaser. However, I've circled a few props that I believe give us the best chance to win some money on this game.

Total Team Touchdowns - Green Bay Packers "Over" 1.5 (-163)

We all know what happened the last time the Packers traveled to San Francisco to take on the Niners. They scored a lousy eight points, and Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst games of his career. His performance was so bad that he became the only quarterback in NFL history with an average air yards of negative yardage (-0.2) with 20+ pass attempts. This means that everything he threw was behind the line of scrimmage, and that just won't get the job done this week. You can be sure that the Packers have learned from that game and will make the adjustments necessary to give themselves their best shot at winning the game. The Packers offense has been playing well lately, scoring at least two touchdowns in every game since the Niners game in Week 12. We know how good the Niners defense is, but they can't possibly play as well as they did in their first meeting against the Packers as they held Green Bay to just 198 total yards. We believe in Aaron Rodgers. And while this may be one of his final chances at getting back to the Super Bowl, you better believe he'll have his A+ game on display against a good Niners team. I expect points, so it only makes sense that both teams contribute.

Longest Field Goal Scored - "Under" 46.5 yards (-110)

I was on this prop last week in the Packers/Seahawks game, and we cashed that ticket, so why not go back to the well once again this week. We know the Packers are going to need to score points to keep up with the Niners, and by points we mean touchdowns. We also don't trust Mason Crosby from a distance as he's been shaky at best this season and after last game he hasn't hit a field goal longer than 46 yards in five straight games. The same can be said of Robbie Gould from San Francisco. Gould has hit only one 47-yard field goal over his last 13 games. He made one on December 29 against Seattle and in the season opener against Tampa Bay. The Niners offense has been a machine all season long and is almost too good to get bogged down around the thirty-yard line. We'll take a chance on both offenses putting up points from in close in this one.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer - Deebo Samuel (+137)

The more I watch this kid play, the more I take a liking to him. The first-year receiver out of South Carolina is getting the highest praise from his coaching staff on a weekly basis. While Samuel plays third fiddle to George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders, Samuel has been a key cog in getting the Niners where they are today. He may not have scored a touchdown since December 1 against Baltimore, but he did find the endzone in the game prior to that against these very Packers. Samuel sees a lot of targets and he's put up some good numbers over his last handful of games. With the Packers likely focusing on Kittle and the run-game, we think Samuel can bust one for a touchdown.

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