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Monday Night Football Picks: Chiefs at Ravens Odds and Predictions

by Chris Vasile - 9/25/2020

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill

Two weeks into the Monday Night Football schedule and fans have got to be pretty pleased with the level of play we’ve seen across eight quarters of football. Last week, the Raiders opened up their new stadium with a win against the Saints, and it was a great game from kick-off to the final whistle. I recommended a play on the Raiders +5.5, and that cashed as they didn’t even need the points, hitting as +210 moneyline underdogs. I expect another great football game Week 3 as two of the NFL’s elite teams square off in a showdown at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore.

It wouldn’t be a “hot take” to predict that this could be an AFC Championship preview as both of these teams have shown every bit the part of a Super Bowl contender, with the Ravens playing a bit better on both sides of the football through two games. Both teams are coming off wins in Week 2 against opponents they should beat, but it was the Ravens who had the emphatic win against Houston and covering the seven-point spread. The Chiefs snuck past the Chargers in overtime but didn’t cover the -8.5 line.

Chiefs at Ravens Betting Story Lines

There are a few storylines that could bat leadoff in this section, but I believe the most important one to touch on is the possibility that this could be a preview of the AFC Championship Game. I know it’s early in the season, but both teams will want to make a statement in this game and plant the seed of doubt in the opponent’s mind. The last time these two teams hooked up was last year when the Chiefs got the better of the Ravens by a score of 33-28.

This year, Patrick Mahomes and his high-powered offense are a year better and perhaps more explosive on offense with the addition of Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the backfield. They have Tyreek Hill, who has produced good numbers through two games, as well as Travis Kelce, who has caught 15 balls and scored twice. The defense showed some vulnerability last week against a quarterback making his first career start, which causes some concern for the Chiefs heading into this week against the Ravens’ vaunted offense. Nonetheless, the defense has given up 20 points per game and has two interceptions so far this season.

As for the Ravens, they haven’t missed a beat from last year’s regular-season as they dominated the Texans last week and destroyed the Browns in Week 1. They’ve outscored their opponents 71-16, and that’s likely the reason they are laying more than a field-goal in this home game. The Ravens are led by Lamar Jackson, who has completed 38 of 49 pass attempts for 479 and four touchdowns. His favorite target has been Marquise Brown, who has 10 catches for 143 but no scores. Instead, the red zone targets have gone to Mark Andrews, who has two of Lamar’s four touchdown passes.

Chiefs at Ravens Betting Odds and Trends

Around 95 percent of the sportsbooks are offering the Ravens -3.5 (-110), with the total set at 54 or 54.5. On the moneyline, the Ravens are between -180 to -190, while the Chiefs are between +160 to +170. If your feeling crazy, the alternate lines offer up plenty of value as the Chiefs on the alternate are -6.5 (+280), -2.5 (+190) and +5.5 (+250). The Ravens are 2-0 ATS this season and enter this game on a 9-1 ATS run in their last 10 vs the AFC and 10-2 ATS run following a straight-up win. The Chiefs are 1-1 ATS after failing to cover last week vs the Chargers but come into this game with great betting trends such as 9-1-1 ATS in their last 12 as a road underdog, and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 September games.

Chiefs at Ravens Betting Predictions

It’s being dubbed as the marquee game of Week 3, and rightfully so. Both teams possess tons of offensive talent, and this total should be eclipsed with time to spare in the fourth quarter. However, while I lean over, I recommend a play on the Ravens -3.5 for a couple of reasons. The first being Lamar Jackson. He’s been essentially unstoppable through two games this season, and we don’t see a way the Chiefs will be able to contain him, Mark Ingram and J.K Dobbins out of the backfield. That three-headed monster will wreak havoc on a Chiefs’ run defense that had trouble containing Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley last weekend. That run game should be able to keep Mahomes off the field and wear down the Chiefs’ defense enough for Lamar to pick them apart in the play-action pass game. Lamar doesn’t get enough credit for his throwing ability, but he makes great decisions and should put up big numbers on Monday. The Chargers may have provided the Ravens with the blueprint for slowing the Chiefs offense down. And with a veteran defensive unit, and a head-coach that preaches a sound defensive mentality, the Ravens will be well prepared for anything the Chiefs throw their way. The Ravens win this game and make a statement, but this won’t be the last time these two teams meet this season.

Play: Ravens -3.5

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