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Monday Night Football Picks for Bills vs. Niners and Steelers vs. Football Team

by Chris Vasile - 12/4/2020

Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers

COVID-19 struck again in the National Football League, this time postponing the Pittsburgh/Baltimore game that was scheduled for the primetime Thanksgiving Day slot. That game was originally pushed to Sunday, then to Tuesday, before finally taking place on Wednesday afternoon.  Because of that, the Steelers Week 13 game got pushed to Monday night, which means we have a Monday night doubleheader for the third time this season. From a betting standpoint and a football fan’s point of view, the more football the better, and another double-dip on Monday night isn’t the worst thing in the world. 

As for this week, Washington travels to Pittsburgh to take on a Steelers team that is now 11-0 and has a legitimate shot of finishing the regular season undefeated. Their remaining schedule features the Bills, Bengals, Colts and Browns, all of which are extremely winnable games. The only problem for the Steelers if the schedule as after their game against the Bills on Sunday, that’ll mark three games in a 12-day span. The Redskins, despite being just 4-7, have it all to play for as well. They are in second place in the NFC East and are on a two-game winning streak. If they can manage the schedule and find at least three more wins out of their remaining five games, they could very well host a playoff game. And in the nightcap, the Bills travel west to take on the 49ers, who will be playing their games out of Arizona’s stadium. The Bills are inching their way closer to a division title while the Niners are all but playing out the string. 

Washington at Steelers Betting Story Lines

The last time a game got postponed from the weekend and pushed to Monday, I wrote that the team with the extra prep time was in a much better position to win the football game. That was the Chiefs, and this week it’s Washington. I don’t believe the same thing holds true. Look, Washington has been good at times this season, but the reality of the matter is that they are still well below .500 and have wins against Dallas (x2), Cincinnati and Philadelphia – teams that are a combined 8-23-2. This week they go up against the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, and the Steelers are no joke. I don’t envision Washington being able to move the ball up and down the field against a Steelers team that ranks in the top-eight in all defensive categories, including first for passing yards allow and points given up. Washington currently ranks 26th in total yards, 24th in passing yards, 19th in rushing yards and 24th in points per game. This is a mismatch. And the only way that Washington can win this game is if the Steelers’ defense runs out of gas as this will be their second game in the span of five days. As per the Steelers, an undefeated season would be the icing on the cake for them, but the real goal for them is to secure a first-round bye and home-field throughout the playoffs. Despite being 11-0, they have the Chiefs breathing down their neck, and any slip up against teams they should beat could cost them a chance at a Super Bowl.

Washington at Steelers Betting Odds and Trends

Almost every sportsbook is offering the Steelers -7 (-110) with the total set at 43. On the moneyline, the Steelers are between -330 to -350, while the Redskins are between +260 to +290. If your feeling crazy, the alternate lines offer up plenty of value as the Steelers on the alternate are -13.5 (+175), -9.5 (+120), or you can take Washington by -2.5 for a big +290. payout. The Steelers are 8-3 ATS after failing to cover against the Ravens as 11-point favorites. The Steelers come into this game on a 4-1 ATS run on Monday Night and an 8-2 ATS run against teams with a losing road record. Washington is 6-5 ATS after beating the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. They come into this game on a 7-21 ATS run in their last 28 on Monday night and 1-4 ATS in their last five vs the Steelers. 

Bills at 49ers Betting Story Lines

As for the Bills, they are 8-3 on the season but just one game up on second-place Miami. And if they would like to end their long drought of not winning the division, they are going to need to beat teams like the 49ers in order to help their cause. The Bills got an important home win last week against the Chargers, but they were very sloppy and careless with the football. They turned the ball over three times (one pick and two fumbles), and the offense was outgained. However, they still have an upper-echelon type offense as they rank 11th in total yards, seventh in passing yards, 21st in rushing yards, 10th in points and second in third-down conversion percentage. They’ll need to be at their very best in this one as they go up against a Niners defense that ranks fifth in total yards allowed, fourth in passing yards, 10th in rushing yards, 11th in points and ninth in third-down conversion rate.

The problem with the Niners is that they are simply too banged up to make any noise. They are starting their backup quarterback (have been for a while) and are getting guys back from injury slow, but they are just not gelling well as a team. They rank in the middle third of the NFL (10-20) in all major offensive categories. And with a backup quarterback, those numbers are to be expected. Unfortunately for them, as the season winds down, it’s going to be too little too late no matter how many games they can reel off down the stretch.

Bills at 49ers Betting Odds and Trends

As for this contest, the opening line was Buffalo -2.5 (-110), but it has been bet all the way down to 49ers -1 with the total set at 47.5. On the moneyline, the Niners are between +100 to -120, while the Bills are between +100 to -110. If your feeling crazy, the alternate lines offer up plenty of value as the 49ers on the alternate are -9.5 (+260), or you can take the Bills by -3.5 for a +137 payout. The Niners are 5-6 ATS after beating the Rams last week as small underdogs. They also come into this game on a 13-3 ATS run in their last 16 Monday games but just 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 as favorites. The Bills are 6-5 ATS despite failing to cover against the Chargers last week. They come into this game on a 6-1-2 ATS run in their last nine as a road underdog but are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last four on Monday night.

Monday Night Football Betting Predictions

Both of these games mean something in the grand scheme of things, so I’m expecting some good football to be played. In the Steelers contest, the Steelers are the better team, but the scheduling does them no favors. Washington has plenty to play for as well, so we’ll take a shot with them at the +7 they currently sit. I would also advise buying a half-point upwards to get them at +7.5. As for the Bills, they need this game badly as the Dolphins are taking on the Bengals, which is almost a guaranteed win. I don’t like the line movement in favor of the Niners, but the Bills are the better team. And as such, if we can get even money on them, I believe that’s a good spot to grab them.

Play: Washington +7 + Buffalo ML.

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