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Free NFL Playoff Picks: Titans vs. Ravens Props


by Chris Vasile - 1/8/2020

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens; M&T Bank Stadium, 8:15 p.m. EST. Jan 11, 2020.

The Tennessee Titans went into Foxboro and did the entire NFL a huge favor by beating the New England Patriots and potentially ending their dynasty, which seemingly lasted 20+ years. The Titans played a nearly perfect game. They got great production from Derrick Henry, who ran the ball 34 times for 182 yards and a touchdown. They got a serviceable game out of Ryan Tannehill, who tossed a touchdown pass to an unknown tight end. And the defense showed up and held Tom Brady to just 209 yards passing and scored on a pick-six. However, the question remains can the Titans do it again , for the second week in a row, on the road against a team that has dominated their opponents all season long?

Depending who you ask, you'll likely get two different answers. The first, being absolutely not. Tennessee doesn't have the firepower to keep up offensively. From a statistical standpoint, (12th in total yards, 23rd in passing yards, third in rushing yards, 10 th in points per game and 18th in third-down percentage), that person would be right. However, from a "they are one of the hottest teams in the leagues" standpoint, the Titans can shock the world for a second-straight week, and we'd chalk that up as an "on any given Sunday" moment. It's tough to say which Titans team will show up, but they'll need to play another perfect 60 minutes in order to give themselves a chance.

As for the Ravens, they come into this game off a much-deserved bye week and now get to host a home playoff game against a team who went on the road and earned every bit of that 14-13 win over New England. You could say that this game would be a letdown for the Titans, but the Ravens would be fools to take them lightly. The Ravens have been the best team in the league from the start, finishing first or second in total yards, rushing yards, points and third-down conversion percentage. They rank 27th in passing yards. However, who needs to throw the ball when you have Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram running the football? Defensively, the Ravens are just as dominant, ranking fourth in total yards allowed, sixth in passing yards, fifth in rushing yards, third in points and 11th in third-down percentage. It's going to take a complete meltdown for the Ravens to lose this game outright, but I've seen stranger things happen to bigger favorites in the NFL.

As of writing this, the Ravens are listed as 9.5-point favorites, with the total set at 47. We know how dominant the Ravens have been this season. However, if the Titans can get similar production out of Henry and can avoid any big mistakes by Tannehill or special teams, they have a chance to keep this within the number. Instead of laying nine, I've circled a few prop bets I like for this contest.

For those keeping track at home, I swept the board with my Titans/Patriots prop bets from last week.

Team Total Points- Baltimore Ravens "Over" 14.5 First Half Points (+100)

If you haven't watched the Ravens' offense play this season, your missing out on something special. The Ravens' offense looks so smooth regardless of if they are running the ball with Ingram or Jackson or finding their playmakers on the outside through the passing game. The Ravens have gone over the 14.5-point mark at halftime in two of their last three games, one of which was with their backups playing a full Steelers squad. The Ravens will be chomping at the bit to come out in front of their home crowd and put on a dominating performance against a Titans team that, let's face it, had an easy time containing Brady and his cast of nobody's on the Patriots offense. The Ravens present a whole other challenge, and we just don't see the Titans slowing down the machine that is the Ravens We are getting plus-money on the best team in the league and we'll take that every day of the week and twice on Saturday.

First Team to Score - Baltimore Ravens (-160)

We know that the juice is a bit steep for this prop bet, but we can't see a scenario where it loses. Think about it, if the Ravens win the toss, chances are they'll want to receive the ball even thought most teams defer to the second half. The Ravens should be full of confidence and eager to get started on their playoff run, and they want Jackson and Ingram to find a groove early on and put up points to get what is already going to be a raucous crowd even more fired up. Should Tennessee win the toss, the proper play would be to receive the ball and keep Jackson on the sidelines, but they've predicated themselves on defense, so we can see them deferring and getting the ball to start the second half. Either way, we believe the Ravens are going to score early and often in this game.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer - Derrick Henry (-110)

We were all in on the Titans last week as we thought they were in prime position to knock off the Patriots on the strength of their running game. Well, it's a week later, and the only thing that's changed is the opponent. If the Titans are going to shock the world for the second straight week, they'll need to produce points and they'll need to limit Jackson's time on the field. How do you do that? By feeding Derrick Henry the ball another 30 times and winning the time of possession while letting your big running back find the end zone. Henry has now found the end zone in seven of his last eight games, racking up 12 touchdowns in that span. The Ravens do have a better run-defense that the Patriots, but it's hard to imagine them shutting out the Titans. Henry scored a short-yardage touchdown in this one and we cash the ticket for the second-straight week.

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