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Free NBA Picks Thursday 2/20/2020 and Opening Line Report


by Jason Radowitz - 2/20/2020

James Harden Houston Rockets

The NBA is back from the all-star break, and they'll give us six games on Thursday's slate to bet on. The Bucks, 76ers, and Rockets will look to cover large spread deficits, while the Heat play their sixth straight road game of the season against the Hawks. Here are the early leans for February 20.

  Bucks vs. Pistons 2/20/20 (-13, 224)

We're back from the All-Star break. So, let me remind you that the Pistons have been awful against the spread at home this season. Detroit has allowed plenty of points at home, and the Bucks, a team that averages almost 120 points per game, will have a field day at home. The rejuvenated Bucks lost their last game before the All-Star break to the Pacers, but they're still 46-8 on the year. The Pistons finished the first half of the season on a four-game losing streak and also traded Andre Drummond and bought out Reggie Jackson. It's rebuild time for the Pistons. Take the Bucks.

Key trends: DET are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games.

Early lean: Bucks, Over

  Heat vs. Hawks 2/20/20 (+6, 231)

The Heat finished the first half by playing five straight games on the road. Miami lost four of those five games, with the lone win coming against Golden State. To start the second half, Miami will still be on the road. They'll travel to Atlanta. The Hawks also played four of their last five games on the road and will look forward to playing at home for the first time since they beat the Knicks in double overtime. The Heat have been a much better defensive team this season as a whole. As long as the Heat can shut down Trae Young and the Hawks offense for a little bit, the Heat should be able to squeeze by with a win and stretch the lead out late. Take Miami.

Key trends: MIA are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 Thu. games.

Early lean: Heat, Over

  Hornets vs. Bulls 2/20/20 (-5, 210.5)

In this matchup, the home team has won seven of the last eight games against the spread. However, Chicago has been historically bad at home, going 17-38 in their last 55 home games. The Hornets have been very good against the Central Division against the spread. The Hornets actually have more wins against the spread on the road than at home. This game will likely go down to the wire with both teams shooting around 44 percent from the field and bringing down near 42.5 rebounds per game. I'll take the points with the Hornets.

Key trends: CHA are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Central.

Early lean: Hornets, Over

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  Nets vs. 76ers 2/20/20 (-8, 216,5)

Have you watched the Nets on Thursday? It's been pretty ugly. The Nets haven't covered a single Thursday game in months. They're 0-8 in their last eight Thursday games. Add on the fact that the 76ers have been nearly unstoppable at home and Kyrie sitting out with another injury. This game seems like the best bet of the day. The Nets can't win on Thursday and have seen the total go over on Thursday's most of the time. That means that the Nets aren't playing much defense. Take the 76ers at home in this one.

Key trends: PHI are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.

Early lean: 76ers, Over

  Grizzlies vs. Kings 2/20/20 (-1, 229)

This is a pretty interesting matchup. The Grizzlies are 8-2 in their last 10 games and are above .500 by two games while fighting for a playoff spot in the West. The Kings ended the first half 6-4 straight up in their last 10 but finished with a two-game losing streak. Sacramento's defense, which is normally good, has been dreadful in their last nine Western Conference games this season. The home team has won seven of the last eight games against the spread, but this Grizzlies team is different. In a tight playoff race, these games matter. Memphis can shoot better, rebound better and play more connected as a group. Memphis should win this game on the road as one-point underdogs.

Key trends: MEM are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.

Early lean: Grizzlies, Under

  Rockets vs. Warriors 2/20/20 (-10, 232)

One of the best offensive teams in the NBA will square off against one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA. Houston has struggled on the road this season, but nobody has struggled against the Warriors, who are just 12-43 on the year. The Rockets are shooting two percent higher than the Warriors and bring down two more rebounds per game. The Rockets style of play won't win them a championship, but it'll win them this game against a depleted Warriors team.

Key trends: HOU are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 vs. NBA Pacific.

Early lean: Rockets, Over

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