Free MLB Picks Tuesday 9/8/2020 and Opening Line Report

by Jason Radowitz - 9/7/2020

A new week has started in the MLB. That means we’re a week closer to the playoffs and the conclusion of the MLB season. The season ends by the end of September, and half of the league will be packing their bags. The pressure is starting to build on teams on the cusp. Here are the leans for Tuesday, September 8 action in the MLB.

Yankees vs Blue Jays 9/8/20 (-115, 10)

The Yankees have had so many injuries this season, it’s hard to assess where this team is right now. They’re losing Gerrit Cole starts. It’s getting embarrassing. Now the Yankees will send J.A. Happ to the mound in this one. Happ has a 5.87 FIP and is walking 3.96 batters per nine innings. He’s also low on the strike outs and allowing 1.8 home runs per nine innings.

Meanwhile, the Jays are making a run at the playoffs. They’ve added plenty of pitching depth, and one of those pitchers was Taijuan Walker. Walker has looked solid for the Blue Jays. He’s held an ERA of 3.26 and is holding runners on base well this season while limiting the walks. We’ve never seen Walker limit runs like this.

Key trends: Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.

Early Lean: Blue Jays, Over

Brewers vs Tigers 9/8/20 (-120, 8.5)

The Brewers have had a forgettable season, while the Tigers have actually put together a quality season compared to expectations. The Brewers will send out Adrian Houser who has a high ground ball rate and is limiting walks well this season. Houser’s strikeout rate isn’t high, but he’s done well pounding the zone. It’s okay to pitch to contact when you’re getting nearly 65 percent of ground balls.

On the flip side, the Brewers will pitch Spencer Turnbull. He’s not pounding the zone. Instead he’s walking 5.97 batters per nine innings. His strikeouts are up and he's not allowing many home runs on the season but the reality is, with the amount of walks he’s allowing, the Brewers will have plenty of chances to score runs for Houser.

Key trends: Under is 4-1-2 in Brewers last 7 games following an off day.

Early lean: Brewers, Under

Angels vs Rangers 9/8/20 (+105, 8)

Lance Lynn is starting to show us that he’s human. He’ll get the start for the Rangers against the Angels and Andrew Heaney.

Lynn is doing a very solid job holding runners on base but his ground ball rate is low and he’s allowing 1.26 home runs per nine innings. That’s what’s holding Lynn back from being one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s striking out nearly 10 baters and has a BABIP os .216.

Andrew Heaney will be backed by the better offense. Heaney is also striking out over nine batters per nine innings and while his walks are a bit high, he’s been able to limit home runs. His ERA is 3.89 but his FIP is 2.69. That’s one of the best FIP’s for starters this season.

Expect a low scoring game, at least early, while these pitchers duel it out.

Key trends: Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.

Early lean: Angels, Under

Reds vs Cubs 9/8/20 (-120, TBD)

The Reds and Cubs will start their own series. The Cubs will pitch Alec Mills, who has been hit hard this season. Mills has a 5.50 ERA and a 5.56 FIP, so basically, his ERA is exactly what he’s been this season. Bad.

On the flip side, the Reds will pitch Tyler Mahle who is 1-1 on the season with a 3.9 ERA and a 4.81 FIP. Neither pitcher has been solid this season.

Both pitchers are allowing nearly two home runs per nine innings. Look out for a potential slugfest here.

Key trends: Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day.

Early lean: Reds, Over

Rockies vs Padres 9/8/20 (-238, 9)

Mike Clevinger will get his second start of the year with the Padres. Expectations are high for Clevinger with the Padres, but his numbers this season just haven’t been great.

Clevinger is 1-2 in five starts with a 3.14 ERA but a 5.07 FIP. He’s been lucky as he’s been able to hold over 90 percent of runners on base this season. The average is around 70 percent depending on the season.

But he’s got an edge against the Rockies’ starter, Chi Chi Gonzales. He’s back from the IL but before the IL, he had a 6.04 FIP and a 5.00 ERA in nine innings last season. He was allowing two home runs per nine innings and had a BABIP of .333. The Padres should come out hitting on all cylinders behind Cleviniger.

Key trends: Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Early lean: Padres -1.5, Over

Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 8:00 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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Free MLB Picks Tuesday 9/8/2020 and Opening Line Report

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