Free MLB Picks Tuesday 9/1/2020 and Opening Line Report

by Jason Radowitz - 8/31/2020

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola

The trade deadline has passed, and playoff pushes have begun. Some teams bolstered their rotation, while some teams bolstered their farm system with players to be named later. With that said, there are plenty of games with value and some exciting pitching matchups for Tuesday’s MLB slate to start September off.

Nationals vs Phillies 9/1/20 (-149, 8.5)

The Nationals and Phillies will throw out a couple solid pitchers in this one. Patrick Corbin will go for the Nationals on the road. He’s 2-2 on the season with a 3.82 ERA and a 3.73 FIP. Corbin has limited walks to 2.04 and is getting nearly a 50 percent ground ball rate.

Meanwhile, the Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the mound, and he has a 3 ERA and a 3.39 FIP. He’s got a higher percentage of strikeouts and has also limited walks to 2.25. Nola has allowed the long ball 1.5 times per nine innings but is getting over 50 percent of ground balls on the season.

Both of these pitchers should do what they always do. And that will be limiting runs.

Key trends: Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Philadelphia.

Early Lean: Phillies, Under

Tigers vs Brewers 9/1/20 (-175, Over 9)

The Tigers will pitch Michael Fulmer, who hasn’t won or lost a single game this season. It’s ironic because he has a 8.79 ERA and a 8.72 FIP. Fulmer has not been good as he’s walking 4.4 batters per nine innings and getting 44 percent of ground balls while allowing 3.77 home runs per nine innings. Fulmer has really struggled this season, but the Brewers offense has too.

On the home side, Adrian Houser will get the start. Houser has induced grounders nearly 65 percent of the time and has walked three batters per nine innings. His ERA is 4.36, but his FIP is also high at 5.23. The Tigers offense can be sneaky at times, but the Brewers offense has the better lineup on paper. Houser is just 1-3 on the season. The over is the play in this one, and the Tigers could potentially even pull the upset.

Key trends: Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague road games.

Early lean: Tigers, Over

White Sox vs Twins 9/1/20 (+110, 9)

The Twins will start Michael Pineda, who was suspended for 60 games last season after the use of performance enhancing drugs. Pineda will make his return to the diamond, and he’s been said to reach 94 miles per hour as he prepares for his start. Pineda went 11-5 last season and really limited walks. His FIP was 4.1, while his ERA was a 4.2. He also averaged 8.63 strikeouts per nine innings. It’ll be hard to know if he can go deeper than five innings, however.

Dallas Keuchel will take the mound for the White Sox. Keuchel is 5-2 in seven starts and has an ERA of 2.70 and an FIP of 3.23. He’s not a big strikeout guy, but he’s very good at placing pitches, walking just 2.08 batters per nine innings and allowing just .42 home runs per nine innings.

Both of these offenses have performed well this season, and both teams are fighting for the top of the AL Central. But I’d much rather side of Keuchel, who has seven games under his belt and won five of them.

Key trends: White Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 vs. American League Central.

Early lean: White Sox, Under

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers 9/1/20 (-255, 9)

The Diamondbacks will pitch Alex Young, who has been thrown into a starters role after starting the season as a reliever. Robbie Ray was traded to the Blue Jays, and now Young will absolutely be staying in the rotation in the near future.

Young has a high strikeout rate of 9.39 per nine innings and walks less than two batters per nine innings. However, his ERA is a 4.7 and his FIP is a 5.79, which is really bad. The Dodgers have plenty of offense and can do damage against Young, who has allowed 2.74 home runs per nine innings.

The Dodgers will send out Julio Urias, who is 2-0 in six starts this season. He’s got a solid strikeout rate but is walking 3.33 batters per nine innings. His ERA is 3.67, while his FIP is 3.92. Urias is clearly the better pitcher in this game, but he just doesn’t get enough ground balls. Urias has left almost 80 percent of runners on base this season with the average around 70 percent annually.

The Diamondbacks just traded Starling Marte from the lineup. The D-Backs lineup has been off in the last two weeks for the most part.

Key trends: Diamondbacks are 3-13 in their last 16 games as a road underdog.

Early lean: Dodgers, Under

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Free MLB Picks Tuesday 9/1/2020 and Opening Line Report

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