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Free MLB Picks Thursday 8/27/2020 and Opening Line Report

by Jason Radowitz - 8/26/2020

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For Thursday’s slate, we’re in line for a couple rubber game matches and some potential sweeps. There are some games with value on Thursday, including the San Francisco Giants at +200. Here are the leans and potential plays you can make for Thursday in the MLB. 

Rockies vs Diamondbacks 8/27/20 (Rockies +130, 8.5)

The Rockies and Diamondbacks will play the third game of the series with Kyle Freeland going for the Rockies and Zac Gallen going for the Diamondbacks. Freeland has a low strikeout rate but a 287 ERA in six games this season. He also has a 4.48 FIP and is getting nearly 60 percent of ground balls.

Gallen has a 2.25 ERA and a 3.71 FIP with 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings this season. Gallen is also getting a solid amount of grounders, with 46 percent, and has looked like the Diamondbacks ace early on giving them quality starts plenty.

The Diamondbacks have been poor offensively as of late. In a low scoring game, I’d rather the team with the better bats.

Key trends: Rockies are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.

Early Lean: Rockies, Over

Red Sox vs Blue Jays 8/27/20 (Blue Jays -175, 10.5)

Here’s the mismatch of the day. Chris Mazza will take the mound for the Red Sox with a 6.35 ERA and a 4.57 FIP. He’s striking out a high number but also walking nearly five batters per nine innings. Mazza has a below average ground ball rate and a BABIP of .471.

Meanwhile, Hyun-Jin Ryu will take the mound for the Blue Jays. Ryu is 2-1 in six starts with a 3.19 ERA and a 3.25. After early struggles during the season, Ryu looks comfortable again. He’s getting nearly 60 percent of ground balls and is allowing less than one home run per nine innings.

The Rays should pounce on Mazza early and often.

Key trends: Blue Jays are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. American League East.

Early lean: Blue Jays, Under

Orioles vs Rays 8/27/20 (-180, 8.5)

The Orioles have fallen below .500 and likely won’t dig themselves out. John Means is slated to get the start for the Orioles. He has an 0-2 record with a 10.13 ERA on the season. Means also has a 7.66 FIP and is striking out 6.75 batters per nine innings this season. Means was the O’s all-star last season. This year he’s not good.

He’ll go up against Ryan Yarbrough, who has a 4.45 ERA with a 0-2 record in six starts. Yarbrough won’t get many strikeouts either, but he’s known for allowing low hard contact.

Yarbrough should be able to get the job done against an Orioles team that is starting to fall back to where we expected them all along.

Key trends: Orioles are 58-131 in their last 189 road games.

Early lean: Rays, Over

Dodgers vs Giants 8/27/20 (Giants +200, 9)

The Dodgers will start Walker Buehler who has a 4.32 ERA and 4.72 FIP on the season. Buehler had a tremendous season last year and was considered as a Cy Young last season. This year he's walking over three batters per nine innings and 1.8 homers per nine innings. If he’s able to limit those two, he’ll be back on the right path.

The Giants will pitch Logan Webb, who is 2-2 in six starts this season with a 3.29 ERA and a 3.16 FIP. Webb has a BABIP of .321 and a higher walk rate than Buehler. What he’s done well with is limiting home runs this year.

The Giants offense has been very good recently. They’ll have a tough test against Buehler. However, if they’re able to hit a couple long balls and get some walks before, the Giants can pull away and win the upset.

Key trends: Giants are 7-0 in their last 7 overall.

Early lean: Giants, Over
 

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