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Free MLB Picks Thursday 10/1/2020 and Opening Line Report

by Jason Radowitz - 9/30/2020

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright

The MLB playoffs have been crazy. Everything you know about each team and all the data that you’ve read has played out completely differently. We just saw Shane Bieber and Hyun-Jin Ryu get lit up in their respective games after having incredible seasons. Tread lightly and enjoy the MLB Playoffs. Here are the leans for October 1 in the MLB Playoffs for the NL games as we know we’ll surely have these games played.

Reds vs Braves 10/1/20 (-141, 7.5)

The Reds and Braves played a marathon game in the first game of the series. The Braves won the game, but both offenses looked helpless and the pitching was superb.

Ian Anderson will get the call from the Braves for the second game of the series, looking to close the door. Anderson, the rookie, is 3-2 in six starts this season with a high strikeout rate and also high walk rate. He’s got an ERA of 1.95 and an FIP of 2.54 but barely allows home runs.

Meanwhile, the Reds will pitch Luis Castillo, who is getting nearly 60 percent of ground balls this season with an ERA of 3.21 and an FIP of 2.65. Castillo struggled to get wins early, but the Reds offense started to pick it up with Castillo on the mound late in the season.

If the Reds stay patient, they’ll force a Game 3 against Anderson and the Braves as long as the bullpen of the Reds can hold the lead. Or Castillo can just go all nine innings. Either way works.

Key trends: Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Early lean: Reds, Under

Marlins vs Cubs 10/1/20 (TBD, TBD)

The Marlins escaped the first game of the series with a powerful win as the bats rallied late to defeat the Cubs.

The Marlins will rely on their most consistent ace in Sixto Sanchez, who is 3-2 in seven starts this season. Sanchez doesn’t have the highest strikeout rate, but he’s got a 3.46 ERA and a ground ball rate of 58 percent on the season, which is more than fine.

However, he’ll take on Yu Darvish, who has been almost unhittable this season with a 2.01 ERA and a 2.23 FIP on the season. Darvish limits walks and gets a high amount of strikeouts.

The Cubs offense hasn’t helped their case for most of the season. But Darvish might not allow any runs in this game.

Key trends: No Trends with no line out at this time.

Early Lean: Cubs, Under

Cardinals vs Padres 10/1/20 (TBD, TBD)

The Cardinals and Padres will pitch pitchers who have dominated this season but have still struggled to get strikeouts. Adam Wainwright will take the mound for the Cardinals with a 3.15 ERA but just 7.40 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s limited walks well and also hasn’t been tagged with the long ball too much this season.

Zach Davies will get the call for game two of the series against the Cardinals. Davies is 7-4 on the season with a 2.73 ERA and a 3.88 FIP on the season. Davies also doesn’t have a high strikeout rate but limits walks well, although he doesn’t get a large amount of grounders.

The Padres are in need of a reliable starter. Davies will be that guy. This game will be a low-scoring game, but you can expect the Padres bats to get the lead late in this one.
 

Key trends: No trend with no line out at this time.

Early Lean: Padres, Over

Brewers vs Dodgers 10/1/20 (TBD,TBD)

The Brewers will send out Brandon Woodruff after going strictly with a bullpen game in the first game of the series. Woodruff is 3-5 in 13 starts with a 3.05 ERA on the season. Clearly, the Brewers don’t score with Woodruff on the mound. So good luck scoring runs against Kershaw.

Yes, Clayton Kershaw will take the mound for the Dodgers. He’s 6-2 in 10 starts with a 2.16 ERA and a 3.31 FIP on the season. He’s got high strikeouts and low walks and has been the ace that the Dodgers have always had. He’s going to be comfortable at home, too. 

Key trends: No trend with no line out at this time.

Early lean: Dodgers, Over

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