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Free MLB Picks Saturday 9/26/2020 and Opening Line Report

by Jason Radowitz - 9/25/2020

jacob degrom

In Saturday’s MLB slate, Jacob deGrom looks to solidify his third straight NL Cy Young award, while other players look to put finishing touches on their stats and bring home some shiny new awards. Going into the weekend, there are still many teams that have a chance to make the postseason due to the expanded playoffs this season. This is something we’ve never seen before in the MLB, but it’s something that many baseball fans are going to enjoy shortly. Here are the leans for September 26 in the MLB.

Mets vs. Nationals 9/26/20 (+190, 8.5)

deGrom will have one final start to prove that he’s the NL Cy Young this season. He’ll go up against the Nationals and Anibal Sanchez. Washington has been mathematically eliminated from the postseason.

deGrom is 4-2 in 11 starts with a 2.14 ERA and a 1.99 FP the season. He’s got a very high strikeout rate and low walks while allowing minimal home runs on the season. Would you expect anything less?

Sanchez will take the hill for the Nationals. He’s a known name but way past his prime. He’s got a 6.80 ERA and a 5.48 FIP while getting low ground balls and allowing nearly two home runs per nine innings.

deGrom is pitching for another Cy Young. I’ll take the Mets all day here.

Key trends: Mets are 22-10 in their last 32 games as a road favorite.

Early lean: Mets, Under

Tigers vs Royals 9/26/20 (-125, 9)

The Tigers will give Matthew Boyd one last start to end his miserable 2020 campaign. Boyd will face the Royals with a 2-7 record and a 6.96 ERA along with a 5.75 FIP. He’s allowed 2.32 home runs per nine innings. He has also struggled getting ground balls and has struggled to hold runners on base all season long.

He’ll go up against rookie pitcher Carlos Hernandez of the Royals. Hernandez has pitched in four games and started in two. He’s thrown only 13 innings and has also allowed his share of home runs with 2.77 per nine innings. Hernandez has allowed more solo shots than multiple home runs. Either way, he’s not getting ground balls, and his strikeouts are below average.

I expect plenty of deep balls in this one.

Key trends: Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.

Early Lean: Royals, Over

Brewers vs Cardinals  9/26/20 (-110, 7.5)

Here’s a solid pitching match-up between Brandon Woodruff of the Brewers and Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals.
 

Woodruff has a 3.43 ERA and a 3.45 FIP on the season in 12 starts. He’s striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings and has limited walks very well while also getting a solid rate of ground balls.

However, his opposition, Adam Wainwright, has been terrific this season, too. He’s not getting a high amount of strikeouts but he’s limited hard contact and has a 3.05 ERA and a 3.80 FIP on the season.

Both offenses have struggled most of the season. I’d expect a pitching performance in this one.

Key trends: Under is 5-0-1 in Brewers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

Early Lean: Cardinals, Under

Cubs vs White Sox 9/26/20 (-141, 9)

Jon Lester used to be a stud left-hander. He’s no longer an ace for the Cubs, but the White Sox will share their young talent in Dane Dunning.

Dunning is a rookie who is 2-0 in six starts this season with a 3.19 ERA and a 3.37 FIP on the season. Dunning has a high strikeout rate and has limited walks along with home runs this season. He also has been getting a solid amount of grounders early in his career.


Meanwhile, Lester has had his moments this season. He’s 3-2 in 11 starters but has a 4.40 ERA and a 4.97 FIP as he’s allowing 1.57 home runs per nine innings. You can count on Lester throwing strikes. You just can’t count on him getting outs. The lefty will face plenty of right-handed bats in the White Sox lineup.

Good luck.

Key trends: White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Early lean: White Sox, Over

Pirates vs Indians 9/26/20 (-122, 8)

The Pirates had one heck of a week to finish their 2020 campaign. If anything, it’ll give Pittsburgh momentum into next season.

They’ll send out Joe Muusgrove, who has gone 0-5 in seven starts this season with a 4.68 ERA and a 3.97 FIP. His FIP is a lot better than his record shares. He’s striking out 12.4 batters per nine innings, but his walks are high along with his BABIP. 

Aaron Civale is scheduled to take the mound for the Indians. He’s 4-5 in 11 starts with a 3.99 ERA and a 3.62 FIP. Civale has an average strikeout rate but limits walks and home runs well this season.

Again, both of these pitchers have been a bit above average this season. They’ll go against two below average offenses. I’ll take the home team and the under.

Key trends: Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.

Early lean: Indians, Under

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