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Free College Basketball Picks Saturday, January 11 and Opening Line Report


by Jason Radowitz - 1/10/2020

Ohio State Buckeyes forward Andre Wesson

Saturday's slate features 14 ranked games throughout the day, so you can sit on the couch and not have to move. Auburn and San Diego State will look to keep their undefeated streaks alive while (4) Baylor and (3) Kansas face off in the battle of the Big 12's best teams. We'll also have a good rivalry game between Villanova and Georgetown. There's so much action so let's get right to it!

(11) Ohio State @ Indiana (+1.5, 134)

Ohio State is in an offensive funk and have lost three straight games with the last two coming in conference play. Indiana is coming off a close home win against Northwestern. Indiana allows an average of eight more points than Ohio State does. This is the game where Ohio State should get out of the funk, score some points and start a winning streak. They've scored fewer than 60 points in the last three games. That'll change against Indiana.

Key trends: Hoosiers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.

Early lean: Ohio State, Over

Alabama @ (14) Kentucky (-9, 154)

Alabama has been playing extremely well as of late. Disregard their 8-6 record. They've won four of their last five games and the one loss was to Florida in a conference play, double overtime loss. Alabama is coming off a home win against Mississippi State, 90-69. Kentucky has been hot and cold this season but right now, they're hot. The Wildcats have won three straight against Louisville, Mizzouri, and Georgia. Alabama scores 84.4 points a game but Kentucky only allows 62.2 points per game. Kentucky's defense and higher shooting percentage should be the factor in this one.

Key trends: Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Early lean: Kentucky, Under

Georgetown @ (16) Villanova (-7.5, 147)

A conference rivalry on a saturday afternoon! Georgetown is coming off an impressive 87-66 point win against St John's but had lost to Seton Hall and Providence on the road prior to this one. Villanova has won four of their last five games and won a road game against Creighton by allowing just 59 points against in a 64-59 point win. Georgetown will have trouble defending Villanova. The Wildcats will come home after a two-game road trip and should feel pretty good about where they stand. Georgetown's last two losses came on the road. Expect a third loss on the road.

Key trends: Wildcats are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 home games.

Early lean: Villanova, Under

UMass @ (15) Dayton (-19, 147)

UMass has struggled on the road recently losing to Akron and Saint Louis on the road. However, both games were lost by a couple possessions. Dayton is winning games by 20 points a piece. In their last four games, Dayton has defeated its competition by large double digits. The competition Dayton has played is about the same as UMass. A blow out is brewing in the University of Dayton Arena.


Key trends: Flyers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.

Early lean: Dayton, Over

(4) Baylor @ (3) Kansas (-8, 131.5)

Baylor is on an 11-game winning streak after defeating Texas Tech on the road in a defensive thriller. Kansas is on a three-game winning streak after defeating Iowa State, 79-53 in a blowout. Baylor's allowing 58.4 points per game defensively while Kansas has allow 61 points. Both teams are accustomed to scoring inside the high 70's. This game will be close throughout. The difference will be Kansas shooting 51 percent from the field compared to Baylor shooting 43.4 percent. Kansas will pull away in the second half and win this game at home in a Big 12 showdown.

Key trends: Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Early lean: Kansas, Over

(13) Louisville @ Notre Dame (-3, 136.5)

Louisville has played 13 of its first 15 games at home or in a neutral location. Louisville will finally start a road-trip and will travel to Notre Dame to start it. After taking two losses, Louisville bounced back with a home win against Miami, 74-58. Notre Dame just recently dropped a game to North Carolina State 73-68. Louisville has more talent and will shoot better than Notre Dame. The Cardinals will look to start a new winning streak of two on the road against the Fighting Irish that have allowed 87 points to Syracuse just recently.

Key trends: Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.

Early lean: Louisville, Over

Wisconsin @ (20) Penn State (-4.5, 134.5)

Both teams were actually on a run before taking conference losses just recently. Wisconsin took a loss to Illinois at home while Penn State took a beating from a Rutgers team without their star player. Penn State is a much better scoring team than Wisconsin and have a much higher rebound percentage going into this game. Penn State should be able to score some points on a tired Wisconsin group that came home for one game and will now have to travel again.

Key trends: Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.

Early lean: Penn State, Under

(1) Gonzaga @ Loyola Marymount (-18, 142.5)

By now, you know how good Gonzaga is and how much they don't belong in the West Coast Conference. It's not even fair at this point. Gonzaga defeated San Diego, 94-50 on the road to bring their winning streak up to 9. Loyola Marymount lost to BYU on the road, 63-38. Will Loyola Marymount crack 40 against Gonzaga? Your guess is as good as mine. Take Gonzaga to win really big.

Key trends: Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.

Early lean: Gonzaga, Under

Syracuse @ (18) Virginia (-7.5, 116.5)

Can I just not pick a winner for this game? Syracuse has lost their last two home games to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech while Virginia was upset by Boston College while only scoring 53 points. Virginia's defense has been really good. I'm going to hope that Virginia's offense can score enough against Syracuse where they win this game. Take the under at all costs though.

Key trends: Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.

Early lean: Virginia, Under

Georgia @ (5) Auburn (10.5, 149)

Auburn is on a 14-game winning streak. Ok, it's not just a 14-game winning streak. It's an undefeated record in mid-January. Georgia will be a tough out though, even after losing to Kentucky at home. Georgia averages 80 points a game but allow 73.4 points per game. Auburn allows 66.7 points per game. Everything else is very evenly matched when looking at the stats. Auburn only defeated Vanderbilt by four points in their last game. Georgia will likely crack the streak and come into Auburn and win. Take the points or think about even taking Georgia on the moneyline. Auburn will lose this one in a shocker.

Key trends: Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.

Early lean: Georgia, Over

(22) Texas Tech @ (17) West Virginia (-3.5, 129.5)

West Virginia just showed the world that they can win tough defensive match-ups with their win over Oklahoma State on the road. The score was 55-41. WVU also hung in with Kansas but lost a tough road game, 60-53. Texas Tech took a tough loss to Baylor at home losing 57-52. This game should be a low-scoring, close game throughout. Texas Tech will likely pull ahead late in the second half and win by a couple possessions in a must watch defensive thriller at 6:00pm EST.

Key trends: Red Raiders are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games following three or more consecutive home games.

Early lean: Texas Tech, Under

Wake Forest @ (2) Duke (TBD, TBD)

ACC play might be starting to get to Duke after defeating Georgia Tech by just nine points. This was the first game they had won by single digits in quite some time. Duke is on an eight-game winning streak while Wake Forest took a home loss to a solid Florida State team last time out. There's probably a lot of overreaction to Duke's single-digit win against Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech has played well this season, especially in ACC play. Duke will win this game by double digits. Maybe by 20.

Key trends: Blue Devils are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.

Early lean: Duke, Under

Boise State @ (7) San Diego State (-11.5, 134.5)

San Diego State and Auburn are the only two undefeated teams left in the nation. I said Auburn would be going down but I think San Diego State remains undefeated after this game. San Diego State is allowing an average of 56.5 points against and that number is remarkable when you look at teams they've played this season. Boise State is coming off a win against UNLV but took an 83-66 loss on the road against Nevada. Boise State has been a lot better at home this season and will face the task of trying to be San Diego State on the road. It's not happening. San Diego State by double digits in this one.

Key trends: Aztecs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Early lean: San Diego State, Over

Arizona State @ (9) Oregon (TBD, TBD)

Arizona State has a 10-5 record and honestly, they're probably worse than the record. ASU lost to Arizona on the road in a rivalry game, 75-47. Arizona and Oregon just played in an overtime thriller where Oregon won by one point. If Oregon just defeated Arizona and Arizona just crushed Arizona State, Oregon should be able to crush Arizona State. Oregon's field goal percentage is way higher and Oregon plays more together as a team. At home, these stats will stay true and Oregon will get a nice hefty win.

Key trends: Ducks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.

Early lean: Oregon, Over

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