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Raphael Assuncao vs Cody Garbrandt UFC Point Spread Picks - 3/28/2020


by Guy Bruhn - 3/16/2020

Cody Garbrandt UFC

Free Picks

Raphael Assuncao vs Cody Garbrandt

UFC on ESPN 8

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, March 28, 2020

 

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS EVENT HAS BEEN CANCELLED DUE TO THE CORONAVIRUS.

 

Raphael Assuncao will battle Cody Garbrandt at UFC on ESPN 8 in UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, March 28, 2020. The opening moneyline has Assuncao coming in at -110 while Garbrandt is priced at -110.

Raphael Assuncao steps into the cage holding a mark of 27-7-0. The 37-year-old weighs 135 lbs and measures 5'5". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 66". Cody "No Love" Garbrandt stands in at 5'8" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 11-3-0. The 28-year-old reaches 65". With respect to significant strikes, Raphael Assuncao is connecting on 3.32 per minute and Cody Garbrandt lands 3.53 significant strikes per min. Assuncao connects on 41% of the significant strikes he tries and Garbrandt is connecting on 37%. When it comes to defending in the cage, Assuncao allows 2.35 significant strikes per min and "No Love" takes 3.53. Assuncao also prevents 68% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way and Garbrandt thwarts 64% of the shots thrown in his direction.

Related: Why the Line Moves: Expert Betting Advice and Analysis

Concerning grappling, Raphael Assuncao is the more productive grappler as he is able to score a takedown 1.54 times per 3 rounds. Assuncao is scoring a takedown on 38% of the times he tries and is defending 80% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Garbrandt is taking his opponents to the canvas on 33% of his takedown attempts and is stuffing 90% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. When it comes to subbing the opposition, Assuncao is the more skilled of the two fighters by trying 0.3 finishes per 15 minutes while Garbrandt attempts 0.2 finishes per 15 min.

In his previous fight, Raphael Assuncao faced Cory Sandhagen and was on the losing end of this fight by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Sandhagen landed 78 of 135 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Assuncao finished this fight landing 65 of 103 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Sandhagen landed 62 of 116, giving him a percentage of 53%. He ended up landing 23 of 67 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the cage, Assuncao landed 55% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 45 of 81. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 15 of 50 aimed at the head. 88% of the significant strikes connected on by Sandhagen and 66% of them landed by Assuncao were tallied at distance.

Related: Get UFC picks & tips

 

In the last fight for Cody Garbrandt, he squared up with Pedro Munhoz and ended up taking the loss by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Munhoz ended up landing 72% of his significant strikes at distance while Garbrandt ended up landing 95% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Garbrandt landed 35% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 21 of 60. He connected on 19 of 50 significant strikes directed at the head. Munhoz ended up landing 25 of 47 significant strikes in that contest. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 16 of 36 directed at the head. In relation to total strikes that he let go in that fight, Munhoz landed 28 of 51 and Garbrandt landed 21 of 60 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts on the card to watch

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Matt Brown squares up in the Octagon against Miguel Baeza. Brown holds a mark of 24-16-0. The 39-year-old records a weight of 170 lbs and comes in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 75". Baeza measures 6'2" and steps on the scale at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a mark of 8-0-0. The 27-year-old stretches 74". When it comes to grappling, Matt Brown takes his opponents down 1.64 times per 3 rds and Miguel Baeza gets a takedown 0.67 times per 3 rds. In terms of striking, Brown lands an average of 3.75 strikes per minute and is connecting on 54% out of all the strikes he attempts. The other guy in this fight is Miguel Baeza, who tags the opposition on 58% of the strikes he attempts and connects on 4.26 per minute.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Yorgan De Castro is set to square up against Greg Hardy. Hardy has a record of 5-2-0. The 31-year-old tips the scales at 265 lbs and measures in at 6'5". The orthodox fighter reaches 80". De Castro comes in at 6'0" and tips the scales at 250 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a record of 6-0-0. The 33-year-old has a reach of 74". In terms of wrestling, Greg Hardy is able to stop 83% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is getting his opponent to the mat on 8% of his tries. De Castro is taking his opponents down on 7% of the tries he takes and is able to thwart 75% of all takedown tries against him. Concerning striking, Hardy takes 3.21 strikes per min and he is dishing out 4.77 per minute. De Castro, on the other side, absorbs 1.40 strikes/minute and dishes out 3.58 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Cody Garbrandt (-110)

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