Matt Brown vs Miguel Baeza Predictions, Picks, UFC on ESPN 8 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 3/16/2020

Matt Brown vs Miguel Baeza

UFC on ESPN 8

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, March 28, 2020

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS EVENT HAS BEEN CANCELLED DUE TO THE CORONAVIRUS.

Matt Brown will face off against Miguel Baeza at UFC on ESPN 8 in UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, March 28, 2020. The opening line has Brown coming in at +175 while Baeza is coming in at -210.

Matt "The Immortal" Brown holds a mark of 24-16-0. The 39-year-old records a weight of 170 lbs and comes in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 75". Miguel Baeza measures 6'2" and steps on the scale at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a mark of 8-0-0. The 27-year-old stretches 74". Regarding significant strikes, Matt Brown lands 3.75 per min and Miguel Baeza is connecting on 4.26 significant strikes per minute. Brown is landing 54% of the significant strikes he attempts while Baeza is landing 58%. Concerning the fighter's defense, "The Immortal" takes 2.58 significant strikes per min and Baeza takes 4.30. Brown also stops 56% of the significant strikes that are directed at him and Baeza deflects 44% of the strikes thrown his way.

Regarding grappling, Matt Brown is the more apt wrestler as he takes his opponents down 1.64 times per 3 rds. Brown is scoring a takedown on 47% of the times he tries and is stuffing 63% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Baeza is taking his opponents down on 33% of his takedown attempts and stuffing 95% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Brown is the more capable of the two fighters by attempting 1.6 submissions per 15 min while Baeza looks to get 1.3 submissions per 3 rounds.

The last time he fought, Matt Brown faced Ben Saunders and wound up taking home the win by way of a punch to the head in round 2. Saunders ended up landing 38 of 49 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Brown ended the night having landed 40 of 59 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Saunders landed 12 of 23, which gave him a rate of 52%. He finished the fight landing 10 of 17 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Brown ended up landing 63% of his significant strikes by connecting on 30 of 47. Out of those significant strikes, he was 27 of 43 aimed at the head. 41% of the significant strikes connected on by Saunders and 33% of them landed by Brown were done at distance.

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In the last bout for Miguel Baeza, he went up against Hector Aldana and wound up taking home the win by way of a kick to the leg at distance in round 2. Aldana connected on 95% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Baeza connected on 82% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Baeza ended up landing 57% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 35 of 61. He landed 16 of 38 significant strikes aimed at the head. Aldana ended up connecting on 8 of 42 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 2 of 30 aimed at the head. In terms of total strikes that he let go, Aldana connected on 8 of 42 and Baeza ended up landing 35 of 61 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other bouts to watch out for

One more match to look forward to is when Greg Hardy enters the Octagon with Yorgan De Castro. Hardy has a record of 5-2-0. The 31-year-old tips the scales at 265 lbs and measures in at 6'5". The orthodox fighter reaches 80". De Castro comes in at 6'0" and tips the scales at 250 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a record of 6-0-0. The 33-year-old has a reach of 74". In terms of takedowns, Greg Hardy takes his opponents down 0.60 times per 3 rounds while Yorgan De Castro gets a takedown 0.40 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Hardy is connecting on 4.77 strikes per min and connects on 49% of the strikes that he throws. The other fighter in this bout is Yorgan De Castro, who is connecting on 53% of the strikes that he throws and is landing 3.58 per minute.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Sam Alvey is set to fight Khalil Rountree Jr.. Rountree Jr. walks into the Octagon holding a record of 9-4-0. The 30-year-old records a weight of 205 lbs and measures in at 6'1". The southpaw fighter has a reach of 76". Alvey measures 6'2" and is fighting at 205 lbs. The southpaw fighter comes into this fight holding a mark of 33-13-0. The 33-year-old has a wingspan of 75". In terms of grappling, Khalil Rountree Jr. is able to stop 46% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is scoring a takedown on 7% of his attempts. Alvey is taking his opponents down on 16% of his tries and stops 82% of all takedown tries against him. With regard to striking, Rountree Jr. absorbs 2.85 strikes per minute while he deals 3.01 strikes/minute. Alvey, on the contrary, is absorbing 3.20 strikes per minute and is dishing out 3.05 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Matt Brown (+175)

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Matt Brown vs Miguel Baeza MMA Betting Tips - 3/28/2020

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