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Louis Smolka vs Davey Grant UFC Predictions & Tips - 3/28/2020


by Tony Sink - 3/16/2020

Davey Grant UFC

Free Picks

Louis Smolka vs Davey Grant

UFC on ESPN 8

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, March 28, 2020

 

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS EVENT HAS BEEN CANCELLED DUE TO THE CORONAVIRUS.

 

Louis Smolka will face off with Davey Grant at UFC on ESPN 8 in UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, March 28, 2020. The line has Smolka at -250 while Grant is at +210.

Louis "Da Last Samurai" Smolka holds a career mark of 16-6-0. The 28-year-old will fight at 135 lbs and stands 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 68". Davey "Dangerous" Grant comes in at 5'8" and tips the scales at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 11-4-0. The 34-year-old extends his reach 69". Regarding significant strikes, Louis Smolka is connecting on 4.22 per min while Davey Grant is connecting on 3.13 significant strikes per min. Smolka is connecting on 46% of the significant strikes he attempts while Grant connects on 52%. When it comes to defending in the Octagon, "Da Last Samurai" absorbs 3.47 significant strikes per min while "Dangerous" takes 1.68. Smolka also curbs 53% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Grant curbs 65% of the shots thrown in his direction.

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In the wrestling category, Louis Smolka is not as effective of a grappler as he is averaging a takedown 1.65 times per 3 rds. Smolka is scoring a takedown on 34% of his tries and defending 30% of all takedown attempts. Grant is taking his opponents down on 47% of the takedowns he tries and defending 64% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding going for the sub, Smolka is the more capable fighter by trying 2.1 submissions per 15 minutes while Grant attempts 0.8 submissions per 15 minutes.

In his last bout, Louis Smolka squared up with Ryan MacDonald and ended up getting the victory via a punch to the head in round 1. MacDonald landed 31 of 81 total strikes attempted in that fight. Smolka ended the night having landed 60 of 116 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, MacDonald landed 30 of 80, which gave him a rate of 37%. He finished the fight landing 20 of 65 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Smolka ended up landing 51% of his significant strikes by sticking 59 of 115. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he was 27 of 61 pointed at the head. 90% of the significant strikes landed by MacDonald and 96% of them connected on by Smolka were thrown at a distance.

Related: Get UFC picks & tips

 

In the last fight for Davey Grant, he squared up with Grigorii Popov and took home the win by way of split decision in round 3. Popov landed 71% of his significant strikes at distance and Grant landed 90% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Grant connected on 47% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 30 of 63. He ended up landing 8 of 32 significant strikes to the head. Popov ended up connecting on 35 of 88 significant strikes in that contest. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up connecting on 16 of 57 aimed at the head. In relation to total strikes that he let go in that fight, Popov landed 57 of 111 while Grant ended up landing 34 of 70 total strikes.

Other bouts on the card to watch

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Marlon Vera squares up in the Octagon against Eddie Wineland. Vera will be looking to add a win to his career total of 15-5-1. The 27-year-old is weighing in at 135 lbs and stands 5'8". The switch fighter has a reach of 70". Wineland measures 5'7" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a mark of 24-13-1. The 35-year-old has an arm span of 69". In terms of takedowns, Marlon Vera gets a takedown 0.76 times per 15 minutes and Eddie Wineland takes his opponents to the canvas 0.28 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Vera lands 3.43 strikes per min and connects on 47% of the strikes that he throws. The other fighter in this bout is Eddie Wineland, who is connecting on 29% of his attempted strikes and lands an average of 3.41 per min.

Another must see fight on the night is when Roman Kopylov is set to fight Eric Spicely. Spicely will be looking to add a victory to his total of 12-6-0. The 33-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and stands 6'1". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 73". Kopylov stands in at 6'0" and is weighing in at 185 lbs. The southpaw fighter holds a mark of 8-1-0. The 28-year-old has a reach of 75". In the category of takedowns, Eric Spicely deflects 75% of the takedowns his opponents try and is taking his opponents to the mat on 20% of his attempts. Kopylov is finishing his takedowns on 8% of the tries he takes and thwarts 66% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the category of striking, Spicely absorbs 5.72 strikes/min while he is landing 3.71 strikes per min. Kopylov, in contrast, absorbs 3.07 strikes/min and connects on 2.64 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Louis Smolka (-250)

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