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Khalil Rountree Jr. vs Sam Alvey Expert UFC Picks - 3/28/2020


by Guy Bruhn - 3/16/2020

Sam Alvey UFC

Free Picks

Khalil Rountree Jr. vs Sam Alvey

UFC on ESPN 8

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, March 28, 2020

 

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS EVENT HAS BEEN CANCELLED DUE TO THE CORONAVIRUS.

 

Khalil Rountree Jr. will face off against Sam Alvey at UFC on ESPN 8 in UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, March 28, 2020. The odds have Jr. priced at -280 while Alvey is at +240.

Khalil "The War Horse" Rountree Jr. walks into the Octagon holding a record of 9-4-0. The 30-year-old records a weight of 205 lbs and measures in at 6'1". The southpaw fighter has a reach of 76". Sam "Smile'N" Alvey measures 6'2" and is fighting at 205 lbs. The southpaw fighter comes into this fight holding a mark of 33-13-0. The 33-year-old has a wingspan of 75". With respect to significant strikes, Khalil Rountree Jr. lands 3.01 per min and Sam Alvey connects on 3.05 significant strikes per minute. Rountree Jr. connects on 40% of the significant strikes he tries while Alvey lands 44%. In terms of defending in the Octagon, "The War Horse" absorbs 2.85 significant strikes per min and "Smile'N" absorbs 3.20. Rountree Jr. also defends against 47% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Alvey deflects 55% of them.

Related: Why the Line Moves: Expert Betting Advice and Analysis

In terms of grappling, Khalil Rountree Jr. is not as effective of a wrestler as he takes his opponents to the mat 0.60 times per 15 minutes. Rountree Jr. is getting his opponent to the mat on 7% of his tries and thwarting 46% of all takedown attempts. Alvey is finishing his takedowns on 16% of his takedown tries and is stopping 82% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Rountree Jr. is the more capable fighter by trying 0.2 subs per 15 min while Alvey looks to get 0.1 subs per 3 rounds.

In his previous bout, Khalil Rountree Jr. fought Ion Cutelaba and wound up losing the fight via an elbow to the head in round 1. Cutelaba ended up landing 16 of 27 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Jr. finished this fight landing 5 of 12 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Cutelaba landed 15 of 26, giving him a percentage of 57%. He landed 14 of 25 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Jr. ended up landing 41% of his significant strikes by landing 5 of 12. Of those significant strikes, he was 4 of 11 pointed at the head. 6% of the significant strikes connected on by Cutelaba and 60% of them landed by Jr. were done at a distance.

Related: Get MMA predictions

 

In the last fight for Sam Alvey, he faced off with Klidson Abreu and wound up walking away in defeat by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Abreu connected on 97% of his significant strikes at distance and Alvey ended up connecting on 75% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Alvey ended up connecting on 36% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 28 of 77. He ended up connecting on 12 of 53 significant strikes directed at the head. Abreu ended up connecting on 36 of 89 significant strikes in that battle. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he ended up landing 17 of 60 aimed at the head. In terms of total strikes attempted in that fight, Abreu was 61 of 115 and Alvey ended up connecting on 67 of 117 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts to keep an eye on

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Cody Stamann faces off with Raoni Barcelos. Stamann walks into the cage with a record of 18-2-1. The 30-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'6". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 64". Barcelos stands in at 5'7" and tips the scales at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 15-1-0. The 32-year-old extends his reach 67". Regarding grappling, Cody Stamann scores a takedown 3.58 times per 15 min and Raoni Barcelos takes his opponents to the mat 2.31 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Stamann lands an average of 4.25 strikes/minute and is connecting on 49% out of all the strikes he attempts. The other guy in this fight is Raoni Barcelos, who is connecting on 50% of the strikes he has attempted and connects on 4.79 per minute.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Davey Grant is set to meet Louis Smolka. Smolka holds a career mark of 16-6-0. The 28-year-old will fight at 135 lbs and stands 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 68". Grant comes in at 5'8" and tips the scales at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 11-4-0. The 34-year-old extends his reach 69". Regarding takedowns, Louis Smolka is able to stop 30% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is getting his opponent to the mat on 34% of his tries. Grant is taking his opponents to the mat on 47% of his attempts and is able to thwart 64% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the matter of striking, Smolka is taking 3.47 strikes per min and he is dealing 4.22 per minute. Grant, notwithstanding, is absorbing 1.68 strikes/minute and is landing 3.13 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Khalil Rountree Jr. (-280)

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