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Week 16 NFL Picks: Best 6-Point Teaser Bets from Handicapper Doug Upstone


by Doug Upstone - 12/18/2019

Jameis Winston of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

All I can say about last week is you and I were robbed. No, I didn't have the Eagles/Redskins side or the total on the Cardinals/49ers clash. Instead, I had the Raiders for NFL picks at -0.5. And after Derek Carr slid in bounds for a first down, which would have likely run out the clock and given Oakland the victory, they officials somehow ruled him out of bounds and Jacksonville ended up winning. The NFL called the Raiders and apologized for the error; I'm still waiting for my call.

That prevented us from a 3-1 week and more wins, taking season record to 41-19.

With two weeks left, I'd like nothing better than to go 4-0 each week, and who knows, maybe a break will go our way and can recoup the officials' mistake and even the score.

Below are my Week 16 selections.

Buffalo at New England - Dec. 21 - Bills Taken From +6.5 to +12.5 over Patriots

Back in Week 4, Buffalo was 3-0 and was playing New England at home and gave a good effort but lost 16-10 as seven-point underdogs. Moving ahead to Week 16, both teams look quite a bit different, and the NFL odds reflect those changes. This time the Bills are a lesser underdog at +6.5, which if you calculate both clubs' home-field advantage based on the first contest, the Patriots should be 13-point favorites. This tells you what you want to know about where the two teams are at the moment. The Bills have gotten better as the season wore on and are 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS on the road. The Pats offense is not close to the past, and that is why the idea of grabbing Buffalo at +12.5 and zooming past the key numbers of 7 and 10 is very attractive.

Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Bills +12.5

Houston at Tampa Bay - Dec. 21 - Buccaneers Taken From +3 to +9 over Texans

Houston won an important game on the road at Tennessee to take over first place in the AFC South. If the Texans win this week, they are the division champs even if they were to lose next week to the Titans, because they would have a better division record. Here is where it gets tricky, because Tampa Bay is playing carefree and easy and has won four in a row and five of six to reach .550. Jameis Winston is like a throwback quarterback who makes mistakes but doesn't sweat it and keeps on tossing touchdowns. It would not be a shock if Houston lacks the same focus as a week ago and with the Bucs wholly confident and playing without pressure, they can press the Texans. We have value in lifting the Bucs from +3 to +9 and found the last 27 times Tampa Bay scored 35 or more points, their margin of victory in the next contest is +4.7 PPG.

Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Buccaneers +9

Baltimore at Cleveland - Dec. 22 - Total Taken From 48 to 54

In this matchup, going with one of the top totals systems of the week and applying it to this teaser. When a home team like Cleveland is off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, they are 27-3 UNDER in their next contest. For whatever reason, points have been hard to come by with the total scored only at 35.2 total points. With Baltimore the top offensive team in the league at 33.7 PPG, we are able to add a six-point buffer for protection if needed. You should know, the UNDER (on the original oddsmakers number) is on a 15-0 UNDER run, which includes a perfect 5-0 this season.

Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Under 54

Arizona at Seattle - Dec. 22 - Seahawks Taken From -9.5 to -3.5 over Cardinals

Just like that, Seattle has gone from a Wild Card team to the top seed in the NFC, at the moment. The Seahawks will look to maintain that lead . Pete Carroll will talk about focusing on Arizona, but you know the players are also giving thought to San Francisco next week, knowing that if they win, they are assured of home playoff games where the 12th man resides. The Cardinals ended their six-game skid against Cleveland and should put up a fight in a divisional confrontation with Seattle. That's why there is a good reason to drop the Seahawks below the key numbers of 7 and 6 against the Redbirds, just in case. With Seattle a sharp 29-3 against a teaser line vs. teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better in the second half of the season, I like our chances.

Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Seahawks -3.5

Doug Upstone's NFL Teasers Method - Betting NFL teasers are not about taking off points in games you like, rather creating value going against key numbers. Those key numbers I am talking about are 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14. This is the real secret to beating the oddsmakers NFL odds for teasers.

The other key component is betting wisely. Limiting your teasers to two, three or four-team groupings, that enhances your chances of winning. With most four-team teasers paying out about $240 on $100 bet when you go to a five-teamer that jumps to +365 and keeps rising as you add more games.

Along with that so does your chances of not winning. How often have you bet teasers and parlays of six or more and only had one wrong? My guess is too often. Long shots do come in, but more often than not the money won only pays for all previous losses.

Doug Upstone is the latest handicapper at Doc's Sports and he brings years of experience with him. Doug has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80 other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer, has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.

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$$ In the NBA, his 4-Unit or higher plays are a sensational 14-3, 82.3%, (as if 12/18) up $5,480 profit!

$$ Doug's on an 83-64 NFL run and is 2016 Monitored Champion

$$ Doug has 21 No.1 monitored titles and 80 Top 10 finishes!

$$ Doug has a 6-unit Week 16 NFL Winner (12/22) plus, 6-unit and 5-Unit College Bowl Winners This Weekend!

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