Super Bowl Props Picks: Quarterback Passing Props Odds and Predictions

by Trevor Whenham - 1/30/2019

It's such an interesting quarterback battle in this Super Bowl. A first overall pick against a draft afterthought. Two guys born within 50 miles of each other but a full generation apart. A guy who has won everything there is to win against a guy looking to prove he can win anything at all. One guy playing his best football of the season right now, and the other struggling to find the game that he had for two thirds of the season but has lost since. If you like quarterbacks and you like drama, you couldn't ask for too much more. And the matchup creates some interesting opportunities for props betting as well. Here's a look at some of the more interesting quarterback props available at BetOnline:

Total passing yards for Jared Goff - o/u 289.5: It has been a tale of two seasons for Goff. In the first 11 games of the season, he went over this total eight times, including five games in which he had more than 350 yards. In the seven games since, though, he has gone over this total only twice, and he has had three times as many games under 200 yards than the one game over 300 he has had. He had 297 yards against the Saints, but 18 of those came in overtime, so he was under this number in regulation then, too. This is not the best defense he has faced, and the game should be reasonably wide open, but I struggle to go over this number. I don't see any real value in the under, either, though.

Total passing yards for Tom Brady - o/u 300.5: Brady has had 343 and 348 passing yards in his two playoff appearances, and he went over this total twice more in his final five games of the regular season. He feels very dialed in right now, and he is up against a defense that is going to give him plenty of opportunities. I am bullish on his game here. The over is at -140, which means there isn't any real value to be had, but the over feels like a solid play.

Total passing yards in the game - over/under 589.5: How you view this one is obviously a result of how you feel about the previous two props - this number if just the sum of the last two totals. The over and under are both at -115 right now, so there is no clear choice yet. And that feels like a bit of an opportunity. Brady is aggressively seen to be going over by the betting public, and I don't have too many issues with that view. And while Goff isn't worth trusting to go over in my eyes, there is a good shot he isn't going to go over by much. So, if Goff is close to his number and Brady is over his, then the over here seems reasonable. If you like the Brady bet at all then it makes sense that you would like this bet more.

Total touchdown passes for Jared Goff - o/u 2: Goff went over this number six times in his 18 games this year and hit the number three more times. That means that the under was quite profitable up to this point. He has gone over only once in his last seven games, and that was against San Francisco, so it hardly counts. And he has only one touchdown pass in two playoff games. He is just not in a good passing space right now - at least not when it comes to getting into the endzone. The under and over are both at -115 right now, so I just don't see how you could justify an over bet. Under for me.

Total touchdown passes for Tom Brady - o/u 2: The over is the heavy favorite here at -140. Two touchdowns would be a push, so really all we have to be concerned about is how likely he is to go under. And the answer is that it is quite possible. Despite big offensive days in the first two rounds of the playoffs, he has had only one touchdown pass per game. He has mostly gotten close through the air and then run it in in the playoffs. And in the last nine regular-season games, he went under this number six times and hit the number once. And the last time he went over was against a Jets team that had completely given up. This offense doesn't need Brady to score touchdowns through the air, so it is wrong to assume that he will go crazy through the air here. The under is at +115 here, and at that price it sure feels like it is worth a shot.

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Start:	November 27, 2024 @ 10:37 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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Super Bowl Props Picks: Quarterback Passing Props Odds and Predictions

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