2019 Super Bowl Field Goal Props Betting Odds and Expert Predictions

by Trevor Whenham - 1/29/2019

When people think about big football games, they always think about touchdowns, not field goals. It makes sense - on the playground as a kid everyone dreamed of throwing the last pass, but no one dreamed of kicking the winning field goal. Kickers are the freaks of the sport. But thanks to all the field goal props that are available, kickers can be more interesting in this game now than ever before. We can look at total field goals, field goals by half or quarter, and field goals each team will score. Surely there are some opportunities to be had there. ( Odds are from Bovada )

New England Patriots

We'll start by looking at the tendencies of both teams and then look at how we can apply that to the prop bets available.

The Patriots are easy to break down because Stephen Gostkowski was the only kicker they used all season. Further, he has kicked every field goal for this team for the last eight years, and 12 of the last 13. He's seasoned and fairly consistent. This season he kicked at least one field goal in all 16 regular-season games. He had just one in 10 games and topped out with five in one game. In the second half of the season he kicked one field goal six times and two in two games. And in the playoffs, he had two field goals against the Chargers and one against the Chiefs.

So, it seems reasonable given what we have seen of late to expect that Gostkowski will kick at least one field goal, but no more than two - or at least more than two doesn't seem particularly likely, so we would have to be well rewarded if we were going to bet on it happening.

Los Angeles Rams

Greg Zuerlein missed five games with a groin injury starting in Week 2, so we have a somewhat smaller sample size to deal with from the Rams - though there is still enough to make some meaningful conclusions. We'll ignore the first game of the season since it was isolated from the rest of his efforts and look at the last 10 regular-season games and his two playoff appearances.

Zuerlein has been more productive than Gostkowski - the two kickers both had 27 regular-season field goals despite the difference in games played. Zuerlein had only one field goal in one game. He had two field goals in five regular-season games and three in four games. And in the playoffs, he had three against Dallas and four against the Saints. So, he is averaging 2.5 kicks per game in his last 12 games and 3.5 in the playoffs.

The props

Team to have the most field goals: You can bet both teams at -115. The Rams feel like free money on this one.

Total successful field goals: You can bet totals of 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, and 5.5 here. The over 1.5 is at -700. So, while it feels like a lock, it isn't attractive. Over 2.5 is at -290, and that also seems reasonable since that is Zuerlein's average alone. The 3.5 number is where it gets interesting, with the under at -110 and the over at -120. The Rams have averaged 3.5 in the playoffs, and the Patriots have added one per game, so the over seems reasonable. But the Patriots come in with a lot of offensive confidence, and that could open the game up early, which would hurt the number of field goals. I would lean slightly to the under here. The under 4.5 is at -280 and the under 5.5 is at -650, so there is no value there in my eyes. I don't love these numbers in general.

Total missed field goals: The total is set at 1 here, and the under is heavily favored at -500. Both of these guys are veterans, so they shouldn't be rattled by the setting. Gostkowski hasn't missed a kick in the playoffs, and Zuerlein missed only a 63-yarder at the end of the first half against Dallas that hardly counts. The under is justifiably favored. But Gostkowski missed one in the Super Bowl last year, and both guys didn't have great numbers this year - 87.1 percent for Zuerlein and 84.4 for Gostkowski. It feels like the over, which sits at +350, is worth a shot. If nothing else, a push seems like a reasonable possibility, and that won't cost you anything.

Total field goals for the Patriots: From all the possibilities, one number stands out here. The under 1.5 sits at +125. Given that Gostkowski has had just one field goal in seven of his last 10 and four of his last five, this is a number worth looking at.

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2019 Super Bowl Field Goal Props Betting Odds and Expert Predictions

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