2019 Super Bowl Expert Props Picks: Touchdowns

by Trevor Whenham - 1/29/2019

The Super Bowl - the one time of year when you can bet on absolutely anything. I love props of all descriptions, but the type we are going to look at today sits right near the top of the list of favorites for me. It's so simple, yet still challenging - and potentially lucrative. Simply, we are look at the touchdown scorer props - whether any given player is going to score a touchdown in the big game. You can bet whether players will score in the first half or in the whole game. Let's look for interesting opportunities - and guys to avoid. One thing that makes this prop so interesting this year is that there is a good chance that there will be lots of touchdowns scored. ( Odds are from Bovada )

Sony Michel (-200 anytime, +160 in first half): Michel had only six scores this year, so heading into the postseason he wouldn't have seemed like much of a pick here. But he had three scores against the Chargers in the playoff opener and two more last week, so they are obviously very comfortable with him right now. I can see going both ways in your thinking when it comes to these bets. On one hand, after two big games the Rams will be prepared for him, and it might be harder for him to shine. But on the flipside, the Rams are not exactly a dominant run defense, so the Patriots are going to run to attempt to exploit that weakness. I lean towards thinking Michel will score, but I don't see any value at all in the full game price and only a little in the first half price.

Todd Gurley (-200, +180): Since we have already talked about one former Georgia star running back, we should talk about the other. I'm actually a little surprised by this price. Sure, Gurley isn't as healthy as he would ideally be. But he still has scored in both playoff games this year despite limited usage. And, more significantly, he scored in 12 of the 14 regular-season games he played in. He is a massive part of this offense. And when making Jared Goff comfortable early is going to be so important to this team's success, you can be sure that he will factor in as much as possible in this game. I would take the first half price quite happily.

Brandin Cooks (-115, +250): I am intrigued by this one. On one hand, I think Cooks is going to be fired up to play the Patriots after lasting with them for just one year - even though he had a good year and the team wasn't exactly overrunning with WRs. And the Rams could look to get him going early to get into the heads of the Patriots defenders, too. But though Cooks puts up yards in bulk, he has scored in only five games this year, and one of those was on the ground. I like the idea of him scoring, but not at this price. I'm actually glad the price is this low, because if it was a little higher I'd probably be tempted into making a bad decision.

Julian Edelman (-115, +215) and Rob Gronkowski (even, +215): I lumped these two guys together because of my last impression of both. In the closing stretch of that Kansas City game, these were the two guys that Brady was looking for, and the connections they had with their QB was almost psychic. When things get tough, these guys become a focus, and they become almost undefendable even though everyone knows one of them is getting the ball. In the biggest of games, that makes them both attractive. Neither guy has a touchdown this postseason, but last year Gronk had three when Edelman was out, and Edelman had one the year before when Gronk was missing. I like both of these prices.

James White (even, +260): I like White more than Michel in one big way - he is versatile enough to run or to catch. He has been the third option on the ground in the playoffs behind Michel and Rex Burkhead, but he has caught a lot of passes. And if Michel is a focus for the Rams because of how effective he has been this offseason, then White could benefit. I don't like this price as much as some, but if you wanted to play it, I wouldn't make fun of you.

Tom Brady (+1000): This is one I keep coming back to leading up to this game. It really felt to me in the two playoff games leading up to this point that the Patriots were making it almost painfully obvious that Brady wasn't going to carry the ball in goal line situations. He's obviously not a hugely gifted runner, but in short yardage situations he can do some damage, and he has scored twice this year. I think that he could call his own number to try to catch the Rams off guard. I'm taking a shot at this price.

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Start:	November 27, 2024 @ 10:37 PM
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2019 Super Bowl Expert Props Picks: Touchdowns

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