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Super Bowl Betting Trends 2019


by - 1/23/2019

New England Patriots running back Sony Michel

Handicappers, I have found over the years, fall into two camps. There are those that look at what has happened in the past as incredible valuable - almost a cheat sheet for what will happen in the future. And there are those that could care less. To them, winning games is about matchups and personnel, not historical trends. Players play games, not history, they would say - and even if they were right, they would inevitably sound a little grumpy saying it. If you fall into the latter camp, then go read something else. But if you place at least some significance in historical trends, then these Super Bowl betting trends for the Patriots and the Rams are going to be right up your alley:

New England Patriots

Heading into the Super Bowl last year, the Patriots were not doing bettors any favors. They were 1-1 ATS and the "over" had gone 1-1 as well. It's tough to make profits when you are faced with results like that. But things have been different this year - in the best of ways. The team has covered both of their playoff spreads and done so comfortably - by nine and 9.5 points. And they have gone comfortably over the total in both games as well. It has been quite a reversal in the playoffs. From weeks 10 to 16, the team went 3-3 straight up and 2-4 ATS, and they had gone "under" the total in five of those six games.

A unique feature of the Super Bowl is that both teams have to play away from home - something that used to be rarer before games were played in London. This isn't great news for the Patriots - they were 9-0 at home this year but just 4-5 on the road. They were 4-5 ATS away from home as well.

The Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 playoff games. They are a very solid 20-8 ATS against teams with winning records, but that isn't that surprising - they are 39-17 ATS in their last 56 games overall. They are also 36-17 ATS in their last 53 games following an ATS win, which means that they carry momentum forward well - good news for them in this spot. They are, however, just 2-5 ATS in their last seven Super Bowl appearances.

L.A. Rams

Like the Patriots, the Rams have covered the spread in both of their playoff games, though against Dallas they did so by just half a point. But they have not been as strong against the total - they went over against Dallas but stayed under despite going into overtime against the Saints.

In the regular season, the team finished strong, covering their last two spreads. But things before that, like New England, were bleak for a while. From a betting perspective, the woes actually started in Week 4. From Weeks 4 to 15 the team went an ugly 2-8-1 ATS, and they were a pretty useless 6-5 on the totals.

L.A. was not only a little better than New England was away from home - 5-4 ATS - but also better on the road than they were at home, where they were 3-4-1 ATS on the season before covering against Dallas in their playoff opener.

The Rams are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win, so they also carry momentum forward well.

Head-to-head

The Patriots have enjoyed playing the Rams over the years, going 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. The news isn't all bad for the Rams, though - the underdog has gone 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Super Bowl history

The Patriots have a whole lot of experience playing in the Super Bowl, but far less experience covering the spreads. They have played in 10 previous Super Bowls, including eight with Tom Brady starting, and have five wins. They did not cover the spread last year but did in the two previous years. They are 3-6-1 ATS overall in the games and dropped to 2-5 ATS as a favorite.

The Rams have much less experience in the big game, having played in the Super Bowl three times, winning Super Bowl XXXIV against the Titans. They have gone just 1-1-1 ATS in their three appearances.

These two teams have met before in the Super Bowl. With Kurt Warner in charge of an offense that would make Sean McVay green with envy, the Rams were favored by 14 points. The wheels fell off that offense, though, and New England pulled off the shocking 20-17 upset.

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