NIT Tournament Betting Preview

by Sean Barnard - 3/15/2022

NIT predictions Kobe Elvis Dayton Flyers

While most of the shine is on the NCAA tournament, there is another exciting round of basketball set to tip-off and bring on its own version of March Madness. The NIT is a tournament amongst the teams that do not make the cut for the NCAA Tournament and is made up of a 32-team bracket. Even better, this tourney tips off Tuesday at 7 PM as a perfect appetizer for the best time of the year for basketball.

The 32 teams that make the tournament are split up amongst 4 brackets, meaning there are only 8 teams in each region. This changes the seeding to make 1 vs 8 seeds as the biggest difference in rank for team plays. It also is worth noting that the NIT is often used as a measuring stick for college programs as an NIT berth is often built into an NCAA Tournament bid the following season. Richmond, Saint Mary’s, Colorado State, Davidson, Boise State, and Memphis (who were champions last year) are all examples of teams who made the last NIT tournament and will compete in the NCAA tournament this year.

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Dayton Flyers (1) vs Toledo Rockets (8)

Perhaps the biggest surprise in teams that were left out of the NCAA field of play was the Dayton Flyers and they were promptly given the top overall seed in the NIT. While the Flyers were never able to crack the top 25 of the AP Poll, they picked up impressive victories over Miami and Kansas this season. Dayton lost in the second round of the Atlantic 10 Tournament to Richmond, who will face Iowa in the NCAAs.

Dayton will face off with Toledo in the opening round of the NIT, but this is a unique situation in which Toledo will host the better seed. Toledo was crowned the regular-season champions of the MAC, which secured them this postseason berth, and they hold a record of 26-7 on the season. The NCAA First Four is taking place on Dayton’s campus, which makes them unable to host this matchup. Therefore, the top seed will be forced to travel.

Even more unfortunate than the loss of home court is the loss of Dayton’s starting point guard, Malachi Smith. The freshman point guard suffered a seemingly serious ankle injury in the final play of the first half and was unable to return to the game during the conference final. Smith averaged 9.3 points, 5.3 assists, and 4.1 rebounds on the season and was considered the motor of the team. Given the unique circumstances, 8th seed Toledo favors the top seeded Dayton Flyers by 1 point and will tip-off on Wednesday at 7 PM EST.

Even with Smith in the lineup, Dayton had some questionable losses on the season. Dayton has averaged 69.1 points per game on the season and are only a 68.2% free-throw percentage as a team. In contrast, Toledo averages 81.5 points per game while holding opponents to 68.4. They had a slow start to the season but are 9-2 in their last 11 games.

SMU (1) vs Nicholls State (8)

It is not projected to be as close on the other side of the bracket as SMU are 15-point favorites over Nicholls State. SMU bounced around between the last four in and first four out of the tournament before ultimately not getting the call. SMU are 23-8 on the season but have a 16-19 record against the spread. The Mustangs average 74.4 points per game, while Nicholls State gives up 71.4. In contrast, the Colonels put up 79.1 points per game while SMU only allows 67.2. This game will tip-off on Wednesday at 8 PM EST.

Florida (3) vs Iona (6)

Another interesting storyline in the NIT is the matchup between sixth-seeded Iona and third-seeded Florida, who are without the head coach they had for most the past season. After spending seven seasons with the program, Mike White elected to accept a job at Georgia effective immediately, leaving Al Pinkins to serve as interim head coach for Florida.

Iona is led by head coach Rick Pitino, who is the only coach to lead three different schools (Providence, Kentucky, and Louisville) to a Final Four. Iona shoots the 21st most free-throws in the country and averages 75.3 points per game. Iona is 25-7 on the season with a 16-16 record against the spread, while Florida is 19-13 with a 15-17 against the spread record. Florida is favored by 7 points, with the over/under set at 144.5 in this matchup, which will tip off at 9 PM.

VCU (3) vs Princeton (6)

It is always interesting to watch how the Ivy League matches up with bigger conferences, and this game will put this to the test. After losing to Yale in the conference final after being favored by 3.5 points, Princeton will look to shake the result. The Tigers were still given a chance in the NIT due to their 22-5 record. Princeton has had a decent number of offensive weapons but ranks 192nd in the country defensively, giving up just under 70 points per game.

VCU ended the season red-hot, winning 8 of their last 9 before being knocked out by Richmond in the A10 tournament. While they can struggle to score offensively at times, the Rams limit teams to just 60.8 points per game, which is the 16th amongst all D1 teams. When comparing the teams on a per 100 possession basis, VCU allows just 88.1 points, while Princeton concedes 105.6 points. VCU is favored by 6 points in this matchup, and the game will tip-off at 7 PM.

There is plenty more basketball to be played to whet your appetite before the start of March Madness. While most of the drama is expected to be seen in this, the NIT tournament is not short of storylines either. Wake Forest, Xavier, SMU, and Virginia are all expected to make some noise in this tournament, so don’t be surprised if one of these ends up crowned the champion.

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