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NFL Survivor Pools Expert Advice and Predictions for Week 7


by - 10/14/2019

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen

This has been a very strange season so far in the world of NFL survivor pools. Each week the choices have been so easy they have all but slapped you in the face. And, with the one notable exception of the Chiefs two weeks ago, they have turned out just as expected. I have played these pools for many years now and have never seen so many people alive in my pools after six weeks as I have now. And what is crazy is that it just seems set to continue again in Week 7 . There is a formula that has basically thrown picks right at us this year, and it is set to do so again. So, let's not overthink it and just apply the simple three-step formula for 2019 NFL survivor pools success:

1. Pick the Patriots if possible. New England has been playing very well this year and has benefited from playing a really soft schedule. And that holds again, as they play on Monday night against the Jets. New York got a win over a talented but very flawed team last week, but that doesn't mean that they are suddenly good. It was a situational victory. And even though the game is in New Jersey, New England still has a massive edge in this one. I won't dwell on this because it is almost certain that you have picked the Pats by now, but if you can still pick them then you probably should. Things get a little tougher from this point forward for the Pats, so this could be your last best chance for a little while.

2. Pick whoever is playing the Dolphins. Miami is tanking in a way that should wind up in the hall of fame. Masterful. They went for two late in the game against Washington, making it look like they were trying to win. Yet they knew they wouldn't get it, called a play that made that likely, and still lost. Amazing. They are bad and working very hard to stay that way. This week, the lucky team being handed a win is Buffalo. The Bills are, at least to some extent, legitimate. They are 4-1, and that lone loss was to the Patriots in a tightly-fought game. They are at home for this one, which is another edge in the second half of October against a team from Florida - potentially a big edge depending on how the forecast develops. And they are coming off a bye so that they are healthy and have had time to work on whatever issues were pressing. They are tough, they should be ready, and they are playing against a truly hopeless team. This one has no business at all being even sort of close, and the Bills are as sound a pick as any team playing against Miami has been all year - except for Washington last week, of course. The Bills are favored by 16.5 points in this game . That's crazy. Yet totally justified given what the Dolphins are. Just make this pick.

3. Pick whoever is playing against the Redskins. As we saw firsthand last week; Washington isn't quite as bad as Miami, and isn't quite as skilled at tanking, but they are awful. Sadly, it doesn't even seem like Washington is actually tanking - they just are lousy. If they were tanking, then they had the perfect leader for that in Jay Gruden. Washington is again in tough this week against San Francisco. It is still tough to know what the Niners really are because they have, with apologies to the Rams, yet to play a really good team. They have looked very good against the schedule they have faced, though, and are doing it by playing cracking defense and pretty solid offense. We still can't really trust their pass game, but they haven't needed it yet, and the run game is really solid. They are good. Potentially very good. And they are up against a team that is incapable of testing them in anything that they do. Washington isn't going to be able to run in this game any better than they have in any other. They can't pass, and that isn't suddenly going to change. And their defense has been awful in general, and against the run in particular, so it is going to be torched on this day. There is not much reason to expect a tight one here. I only like Bills better because they are at home and because it is Miami, but this is a very playable spot as well.

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