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NFL Survivor Pool Picks and Advice: Week 6


by Matt Severance - 10/9/2019

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson

The various sportsbooks had a very good Week 5 around the NFL. They cashed in big time on the Indianapolis Colts upsetting the Chiefs in Kansas City on Sunday night as they books were more exposed on KC than any other team. They also did well on teams like Green Bay and Arizona winning on the road.

However, the books also have to be smiling right now with the offensive failures going on in Cleveland and Chicago. Those two teams took BY FAR the most betting action this offseason to win Super Bowl LIV. Both would miss the playoffs as things stand and appear to have major problems at quarterback.

The Bears are off this week, but they had no right losing to Oakland in London - although pretty clearly the Raiders are a bit better than anyone thought. Are you aware that Chicago has yet to even reach 300 yards of offense this year? Cleveland, meanwhile, was destroyed on Monday night in San Francisco as punk Baker Mayfield continues to struggle and do alleged stupid things. The former Heisman winner was yapping all offseason about how good his team would be, and I've never seen an opposing team celebrate embarrassing a quarterback like the Niners players did Monday - especially Nick Bosa, because he still had a beef with Mayfield from an Oklahoma-Ohio State game in Columbus when both were still at their respective schools.

Still a long way to go, but if things don't get turned around soon in Chicago and Cleveland, all those Vegas books will be huge winners on the Super Bowl futures odds .

As far as Survivor from Week 5, my top two recommendation both won, but I also didn't exactly go out on a limb on picking double-digit favorites Philadelphia and New England. The Chiefs losing at home might have bitten some people. Ditto the Chargers being upset at home by previously winless Denver. Other than those, not too much earth-shaking.

Related: Trevor Offers his Week 6 NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Here's a look at Week 6 , with Buffalo, Indianapolis and Oakland joining Chicago on the bye. The team listed first is my choice.

14. Baltimore vs. Cincinnati: Maybe Marvin Lewis wasn't the problem after all? The Bengals are an utter disaster without a long-term plan in place - shoot, even the Dolphins have a plan. It's time for new Cincinnati coach Zac Taylor to bench Andy Dalton for rookie Ryan Finley.

13. New England vs. NY Giants (Thursday): I don't recommend Thursday games as a top Survivor choice, and you probably used the Patriots by now. That said, the Giants might be down their three best offensive players in Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram, so I don't see how they could win this.

12. Denver vs. Tennessee: I actually don't think the Broncos are all that bad - they should be 3-2 but lost two games they had in hand at the final gun. I stupidly put some faith in the Titans last week at home vs. Buffalo and then remembered why I don't trust Marcus Mariota.

11. Minnesota vs. Philadelphia: Yes, the Eagles are good, but I don't think the Vikings will lose a game at home this season. Kirk Cousins usually plays much better there.

10. Dallas at NY Jets: Don't wish anyone to lose their job, but why did the Jets hire Ryan Gase again? If the Cowboys lose this, get ready for loudmouth Stephen A. Smith to be calling for Jason Garrett's firing on Monday morning. New York will get Sam Darnold back.

9. Kansas City vs. Houston: Is Patrick Mahomes actually mortal? He hasn't looked quite right the past two weeks because of an ankle injury, but hard to see the Chiefs losing back-to-back at home. It's the first of what should be many Mahomes vs. Deshaun Watson shootouts. Both guys the Bears could have had!

8. LA Rams vs. San Francisco: Yep, I realize the 49ers are unbeaten and the Rams have lost back-to-back games, but L.A. is on extra rest and San Francisco on a short week. That matters.

7. LA Chargers vs. Pittsburgh: My Bears-Chargers Super Bowl prediction isn't looking great right now. At least the Bolts have an excuse: They have lost a ton of guys to injuries. Someone named Devlin Hodges will start at QB for the Steelers. Sounds like a men's clothing store.

6. Green Bay vs. Detroit (Monday): The Motor City Kitties have won just three times in Wisconsin since 1992 … but two of those came the past two years. I think this will be close with the Lions off their bye, but Green Bay will escape. The Pack rarely lose prime-time home games.

5. Tampa Bay vs. Carolina: Sunday morning game in London - breakfast at Tottenham instead of Wimbledon. Bucs get the season sweep.

4. New Orleans at Jacksonville: Teddy Bridgewater is going to get paid big time by some team next season to be the starting quarterback. Hey Teddy, do you like Chicago?

3. Cleveland vs. Seattle: I'm going against by Rams-Niners logic because this is the exact same scenario, but I just don't like taking West Coast teams with those 10 a.m. Pacific time starts. The Browns can't be this bad.

2. Atlanta at Arizona: Yawn. Still can't believe the Falcons are this bad. That blown Super Bowl against the Patriots completely wrecked this franchise. Dan Quinn deserves to be gone with a loss here.

1. Miami vs. Washington: This has to be the biggest waste of time football-wise this decade, yet I can't wait to see it. Shoot, I honestly might drive down to Miami to see all the funny signs and people wearing bags at Hard Rock Stadium. I'll simply take the Fins because they are on a bye and have some coaching continuity, unlike the Redskins after firing Jay Gruden on Monday.


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