NFL Picks Week 6: Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Odds and Predictions

by Alan Matthews - 10/9/2019

I thought the Cleveland Browns would contend for a playoff spot this season, and they still might - the AFC North could only take eight victories to win. However, I wasn't buying all that Super Bowl hype (Browns and Bears took most money in Vegas to win SB LIV this offseason) because I wasn't sold yet on cocky Baker Mayfield or his shaky offensive line. We finally got our first MNF sweep of the 2019 season in Week 6 because we bet against Mayfield's Browns in San Francisco and went "under" the total.

Mayfield looked absolutely horrible in completing just 8-for-22 for 100 yards with no TDs and two picks - his sixth straight game with an interception - in a 31-3 blowout loss. Can't say I saw the 49ers winning by 28 but coming off the bye was very comfortable backing them ATS.

So does that mean I have to bet Detroit this week in Green Bay for Week 6 because the Lions also are coming out of the bye? Well, read on to find out. The NFC North is perhaps the deepest division in the NFL as every team has a winning record and positive point differential. Green Bay is solo first at 4-1 and the Bovada favorite at +120. Detroit is 2-1-1 yet could be 4-0 and also 0-4 and everything in between as every game has been decided by four points or fewer. The Lions are +675 long shots to win their first division title since 1993.

Lions at Packers Betting Story Lines

Detroit had a few unlucky breaks go against it in Week 4 against Kansas City as the Chiefs scored with under a minute left - after a fourth-down conversion kept the drive alive - to win 34-30. The Chiefs also were aided by a 100-yard fumble return for a touchdown, which obviously doesn't happen all that often. I would argue the Lions deserved to win.

Matthew Stafford threw for 291 yards and three TDs without a turnover (Kenny Golladay caught two of those TDs; Stafford is throwing deep much more often this season) and Detroit rushed for 186 yards, led by Kerryon Johnson's 125. The Lions played without Pro Bowl cornerback Darius Slay (hamstring), but he should be back this week with all that time off. Probably WR Danny Amendola too. However, good-looking rookie tight end TJ Hockenson might not be ready off a concussion suffered vs. the Chiefs.

Green Bay has an argument as the NFC's best team thus far, although obviously the unbeaten 49ers have to be considered. However, San Francisco hasn't beaten a good team yet, while the Packers own a victory over Chicago and Minnesota and on Sunday went to Dallas and knocked off the Cowboys 34-24.

If I told you an Aaron had four touchdowns in that one, I'm sure you would presume it was Aaron Rodgers. He actually was rather quiet with 238 yards passing and no scores, but Aaron Jones blew up (and had a massive fantasy day) with 107 yards and four rushing scores while leading the team with seven catches for 75 yards. Jones essentially had been in a timeshare with Jamaal Williams, but Williams missed the Dallas game with a concussion. So did No. 1 WR Davante Adams with a toe injury. Too early to tell if Adams returns Monday as he's being called week-to-week.

Green Bay's defense has taken a huge step forward this year, and one of the best rookies on that side of the ball has been defensive back Darnell Savage. He left Sunday's win with an ankle injury but avoided anything serious. Up until his injury, Savage had played every single defensive snap this season. Sounds like he might miss a game or two, but that likely won't be decided until later this week, either.

Lions at Packers Betting Odds and Trends

At 5Dimes, Green Bay is a 4.5-point favorite (-110) with a total of 46.5. On the moneyline, the Packers are -225 and Lions +185. On the alternate lines, Green Bay is -5 (-105), -4 (-118) and -3.5 (-125). Detroit is 1-1 against the spread on the road and 2-0 "over/under." The Pack are 2-1 ATS at home and 2-1 O/U.

Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its past seven after a bye. It is 5-2 in its previous seven on Monday. The Lions are 1-4 in their past five vs. the NFC North. The Packers are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 vs. the NFC North and 2-5 ATS in their previous seven on Monday. The under is 6-2 in Detroit's past eight vs. the NFC. It has hit in five straight Packers games vs. the division. The over is 6-1 in the previous seven meetings.

Lions at Packers Betting Prediction

Including playoffs, the Packers are 25-3 against the Lions in the state of Wisconsin (Pack used to play occasionally in Milwaukee) since 1992. However, the Lions have won their past two at Lambeau and swept Green Bay the previous two seasons.

It's going to be chilly on Monday in Green Bay with a low of 36, so I do love the "under." Wish I knew about Slay, Adams and Savage, but I'll say the Packers win something like 23-17, so give the points - although I'll wait and do Green Bay at -2.5 to be safe.

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NFL Picks Week 6: Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Odds and Predictions

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