NCAA Basketball Betting Advice: Value Teams and Money Burners

by Trevor Whenham - 12/6/2019

We are a month into the college basketball season, and it has been a wild ride already. No. 1 teams are falling like flies. Tournament performances were impressive in some cases - Michigan above all - and underwhelming in many others. And we are only starting to get a sense of which teams are any good and which are built to be a force in March when it really matters. Along the way, there have been some real betting surprises - both positive and negative. Here is a look at a few highlights on both sides of that coin:

Positive Surprises

DePaul (9-0, 7-2 ATS): DePaul didn't get a single vote in the preseason polls. They were reasonably well respected, but they weren't supposed to do what they are doing. Nine wins without a loss is impressive no matter what, but they have won against Texas Tech, Minnesota, Boston College and Iowa. Aside from last year's championship runner-up, that's not the toughest schedule that any team has faced, but it's still solid. This team is cruising and rewarding bettors handsomely. The schedule continues to be interesting, so we will have to see if they can keep this hot betting pace up.

Stephen F. Austin (7-1, 6-1-1 ATS): This team stunned the world, and made sure they will be known all year and beyond, with their incredible win at Duke when the Blue Devils were the top-ranked team in the country. It wasn't just that they won that game, but how they did - the layup made with basically no time left on the clock. The oddest part of that very odd story was that they had lost to Rutgers - not exactly a good team - by 12 points as 12-point dogs right before their trip to Duke. Those are the only two major conference teams they have played so far, but their fearlessness and aggressiveness on a big stage is certainly worth keeping an eye on.

UConn (6-2, 7-1 ATS): The typically proud Huskies have hit a very rough patch, missing the tournament three years in a row. They still aren't back at championship caliber, but they are certainly better now than they were in recent years, and the ceiling is the tournament for sure. They are certainly off to a solid start, with a nice win against Florida and a loss in overtime at Xavier. It's a very promising start for a team hoping that their long rebuild is drawing to an end. It's not all perfect, though - they lost to St. Joe's by 11 as 13.5-point favorites. It's a process, but it seems like a process moving in the right direction.

Ohio State (8-0, 6-2 ATS): The Buckeyes were ranked 18th heading into the season, so they aren't sneaking up on anyone. But this is a really good team. They just beat North Carolina by 25. They also beat Villanova by 25 - in a game that was a pick'em . The two games they haven't covered were hardly reason for panic, either. They beat Stetson by 35 as 43.5-point favorites and beat UMass by 20 when the spread was 30. This is a team worth keeping a close eye on in what is shaping up to be a brutally tough Big Ten this year.

Negative Surprises

North Carolina (6-2, 2-6 ATS): The Tar Heels started the season as the ninth-ranked team in the country. But it has not been smooth or particularly impressive. Sure, they have lost only twice. But it's the nature of those losses that is the concern - by 25 to Ohio State and to Michigan in the Bahamas by nine in score that was very flattering to the team's effort. What stands out most is that this is a team that has no shortage of talent but one that just can't score right now. This is the most painfully challenged offense Roy Williams has had in a long while.

Michigan State (5-3, 2-6 ATS): The Spartans started the season ranked No. 1 in the country. But that distinction didn't even last through the first game of the year, as they opened by dropping one to Kentucky. They also lost to Duke. And, somehow, Virginia Tech. And they have had some tragedy around the team as well, with Cassius Winston's brother being killed early in the season. The talent on this team is very impressive, but it just hasn't come close to coming together so far, and the bettors are suffering badly as a result.

Florida (6-2, 2-6 ATS): The Gators were ranked sixth nationally heading into the season. Like so many others, they have disappointed mightily out of the gate. Losses to Florida State and UConn were both a long way from ideal - they were solidly favored in both. And in their wins, they largely haven't looked as good as they should be. Again, they are a work in progress, and our job is to determine how long we can be patient and how well they can climb out of this hole.

Virginia (7-1, 2-6 ATS): We knew that Virginia was going to take a step back after winning it all last year. They lost too much to hold the course. But even given that, this start hasn't been ideal. They have only one loss, but they have also only played one solid team. And that loss was just awful - they fell to Purdue by 29 in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Bettors are struggling to adjust to the fact that just because the name on the front of the jersey is the same as last year, that doesn't mean that the team inside those jerseys is the same.

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NCAA Basketball Betting Advice: Value Teams and Money Burners

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