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Kyler Murray NFL Betting Props with Expert NFL Draft Predictions


by - 2/27/2019

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray is one of the most interesting players to enter the NFL Draft in recent memory. At this time last year, he was just one of two guys who could be in line to replace Heisman winner Baker Mayfield at Oklahoma. He was the slight favorite over Austin Kendall, but he was no lock. Then, in June, the story started getting more complicated. He was the ninth pick in the MLB Draft by Oakland, and he signed a contract with them. The story entering the year was that he would play one more year of football before starting his pro baseball career. But then he tore up the Big 12, won the Heisman, and made what seemed to become an inevitable decision, informing Oakland that he was giving up on his baseball career for now to pursue an NFL career.

Last year's Heisman winner from Oklahoma went first overall in the draft, and had a very strong rookie season, so on the surface it would seem obvious that Murray would be picked high. But Murray is not prototypically sized for the NFL, and he has only one year of massive college success, so NFL teams will have to overcome some reasons to be skeptical if they choose to pick him high in the Draft.

BetOnline has a couple of interesting props available when it comes to Murray and his potential draft position. They are worth a look.

Kyler Murray draft position - "over/under" 9.5: The under is a strong favorite at -175, with the over at +135. Considering that at the start of the draft process there were some people who weren't sure he was going to be a first-round pick, this price represents a bit of a shift. It seems very likely that he will not be a top pick. And when you watch him play, it makes sense - he might not be traditionally big enough, but then neither is Drew Brees. And Murray can clearly flat out play. But, frankly, I'm a little surprised that the under is favored by this much, and I would suggest there is some solid value in the over.

There are two issues that make the over attractive. The first is that Murray likely isn't the top QB on most boards right now. Ohio State's Dwayne Haskins is bigger, put up huge numbers, and will be tough to pass on for teams. Murray will struggle to pass him given his size. And second, there is a shortage of teams that are likely to pick a QB early. The Giants, with the sixth pick, clearly need a QB, but they don't feel likely to take a risk with Murray. Haskins seems like a fit there. Jacksonville needs a QB as well at the seventh pick, but they have playoff potential with their roster and could look for a veteran option to reach that potential this year. They could look for an offensive lineman with their pick instead. And those are the only likely QB spots in the top nine right now barring a trade. The over makes some sense.

Who will draft Kyler Murray?: This is clearly related to the last question. The favorite here is Miami at +150. The team has the 13th pick, and is making a change at QB, so this makes a whole lot of sense. And the team needs something to get fans excited, and Murray would certainly do that. But the biggest reason that this price isn't that attractive is that 12 picks will be made before Miami's, which is a lot of room for a team to gamble or for one to trade up. Miami is the logical favorite but not worthy of this price.

Arizona, New York Giants and Jacksonville all come next at +500. Arizona has been a targeted spot since Kliff Kingsbury was hired because Kingsbury gushed about the player well before taking the Cardinals job. They would be a great pairing, but Arizona already has a decent option in Josh Rosen, and it would seem irresponsible to move on from him now when a guy like Nick Bosa can be had with their top pick. New York GM Dave Gettleman is far from the league's biggest innovator, and he is fighting for his job, so it just doesn't feel like he is a guy who is going to gamble on a 5-foot-9 QB. He's done nothing to fix his QB situation the last couple of years, so this feels far too innovative - especially with a more traditionally safe pick like Haskins available. Jacksonville makes more sense, but Nick Foles probably suits their short-term needs better, and they could value an immediate starter in another position more than a QB who isn't what they need now.

The Redskins are at +1000. They seem likely to take a QB, but they don't pick until 15th and probably can't afford to pay to move up given the needs they have elsewhere, so they are more likely to wind up with someone other than Murray.

Oakland at +700 is interesting. They have a franchise QB - or at least they are paying Carr to be one. But last year was a disaster, and Jon Gruden has shown that he isn't loyal to any player if he wants to make a change. There would be a market for Carr if they wanted to trade him, and Murray would likely be available with the fourth pick if the Raiders wanted him. I won't bet it will happen at this price, but I could talk myself into believing that it was possible pretty easily.

Cincinnati at +1200 is a very interesting option. New coach Zac Taylor is a young innovator - the new generation in the league. He got this shot to coach very early in his career, and it seems doubtful to me that he would be excited about tying his fate to Andy Dalton. Murray would excite a guy like Taylor a whole lot, and with the 11th pick he might still be in play. Cincinnati isn't Murray's most likely destination, but there is nice value at this price.

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