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Indianapolis vs. New Orleans Picks Week 15 Monday Night Football


by Alan Matthews - 12/11/2019

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett

Well, I have no one to blame but myself for going 0-2 on my picks for the Week 14 Monday night game between the Eagles and Giants from Philly. I didn't like Philadelphia as double-digit favorite but gave a 7.5-point alternate line instead and went "over" the total of 47. Sometimes, the weather absolutely should change your mind on certain picks. And if I had 100 percent known what the conditions were going to be like with the wind and rain, I would have taken New York plus the points and the under (ditto once I learned that Eli Manning was starting over Daniel Jones). Alas, the Eagles were 23-17 overtime winners - a game they really didn't deserve to win.

This week it's a better matchup as the Indianapolis Colts visit the New Orleans Saints . Indy was an early surprise behind Jacoby Brissett at 5-2, but the wheels have since fallen off and the Colts (6-7) would be eliminated from the playoff chase with a loss Monday. Still, Brissett has played well enough that I don't believe Indy needs to look quarterback early in the 2020 draft. And, shoot, maybe Andrew Luck un-retires.

New Orleans' chance of earning the top seed in the NFC took a major hit last week in a totally wild home loss to San Francisco. Now, the best the Saints (10-3) likely can do is the No. 2 seed. They currently would be No. 3, losing a tiebreaker with Green Bay due to conference records. The Packers are 7-2 vs. the NFC and the Saints, who have clinched the NFC South already, are 8-3. Green Bay might lose Sunday at home to Chicago , definitely might in Week 16 at Minnesota and probably wins Week 17 in Detroit. New Orleans visits a vastly improving Titans team next week and then closes at nothing-to-play for Carolina.

Colts at Saints Betting Story Lines

Rare that a hyped important game surpasses any expectations, but New Orleans' 48-46 loss to the Niners last Sunday sure did. It was the highest-scoring game between teams with at least 10 victories in NFL history and the only time a game has finished with that exact score. New Orleans could have won but didn't stop San Francisco on a late fourth-and-2 that set up the winning field goal.

I'm guessing Brees hasn't lost often in his career when throwing for at least 349 yards and five touchdowns as he did - and that was against what was the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL. Brees also rushed for a score. The future Hall of Famer now has 11 career games with at least five touchdown passes, the most such games in NFL history.

He became the fourth player in the Super Bowl era with five passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in a single game. The others are Aaron Rodgers, Mark Malone and Mark Rypien. Brees could pass Peyton Manning as the NFL's all-time passing TD leader in this one as Brees has 537 and Peyton 539. Brees may not have top tight end Jared Cook as he left vs. the Niners with a concussion.

The Indianapolis defense has been a problem often during the stretch of five losses in six games and it definitely was last week in a 38-35 loss in Tampa as the Bucs totaled a whopping 542 yards. Would have been a blowout if not for three more Jameis Winston turnovers, one that was returned 80 yards for a touchdown by linebacker Darius Leonard.

Brissett threw for 251 yards and two scores and No. 1 tailback Marlon Mack returned from a two-game injury absence and rushed for a score. Top wideout T.Y. Hilton was out again and kicker Adam Vinatieri sat. His season and almost surely career are over as the future Hall of Famer cost Indy at least three games this season with misses/blocked kicks. He is the league's all-time leading scorer. Hilton's season is probably done too.

Colts at Saints Betting Odds and Trends

At 5Dimes, the Saints are 10.5-point favorites (+120) with a total of 46. On the moneyline, New Orleans is -420 and Colts +335. On the alternate lines, the Saints are -10 (+105), -9.5 (-110), -9 (-115) and -8.5 (-120). Indianapolis is 3-1-2 ATS on the road and 3-3 "over/under." New Orleans is 3-4 ATS at home and 4-3 O/U.

The Colts are 11-2 ATS in their past 13 vs. teams with a winning record. They are 11-5 ATS in their previous 16 on Monday. The Saints are 4-9 ATS in their past 13 as favorites and 1-5 ATS in their previous six on Monday. The over is 5-1 in Indy's past six on Monday. It's the same in New Orleans' past six.

Colts at Saints Betting Prediction

The Saints are 8-5 all-time vs. the Colts dating to their days in Baltimore. That includes the Saints' only Super Bowl trip and victory with Brees beating Manning, whose family is New Orleans royalty, 31-17 in SB XLIV.

Could see the Saints being a bit flat here early off that Week 14 epic. I'll take the 10.5 points and go over the total. New Orleans wins something like 30-21.

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