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Georgia State Panthers Picks for Week 13 in Doc's Specialization Series


by Ricky Dimon - 11/21/2019

Dan Ellington Georgia State Panthers

A home date with the South Alabama Jaguars this weekend may be just what the doctor ordered for the Georgia State Panthers. No kind of prescription was necessary as the Panthers started the season 6-2 with wins over Tennessee and Army in addition to a triple-overtime loss to Texas State. In other words, they could have been 7-1 through eight games.

Now, however, things are going ion the other direction. Georgia State has lost two in a row against Louisiana-Monroe and Appalachian State, the first by 14 points and next by 29. Quarterback Dan Ellington suffered a torn ACL during his team's loss to the Warhawks…but still played against App State! That's right; Ellington played on a torn ACL and plans to continue doing so throughout the remainder of the 2019 campaign.

Fortunately for the Panthers, they wasted no time becoming bowl eligible and thus the pressure is off as they limp down the home stretch. If they want to finish with a winning record, though, it would be in their best interest to take care of South Alabama on Saturday because a tough test against Georgia Southern looms in the regular-season finale. With two to go we continue to track Georgia State throughout its 10th year of football. There will be a selection on each game at the end of the weekly article and we'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and document the results.

Last Game

Ellington sustained his knee injury during the previous week's loss to Louisiana-Monroe and he was initially ruled out against Appalachian State. That made sense given that the senior had…you know…a torn ACL. He still played this past Saturday, but he was not the same signal-caller that had thrown 18 touchdown passes compared to only four interceptions while leading the Panthers to six wins in their first eight outings. Ellington completed just12 of 27 attempts for 88 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions during the 56-27 setback. He was replaced in the fourth quarter by freshman Cornelious Brown after things had gotten out of hand and a loss was inevitable.

Despite the disappointing final score, it was hardly a blowout from start to finish. In fact, the home underdogs (+16.5) surged to a 21-7 lead in the first quarter thanks in part to a 34-yard interception return for a touchdown by Chris Bacon. It was all downhill from there, though, for Georgia State. The Mountaineers reeled off 49 unanswered points, scoring a touchdown late in the first quarter, dominating the second quarter 21-0 en route to a 35-21 halftime lead, and eventually extending their advantage to 56-21. The racked up 553 yards of total offense, including 290 on the ground. Georgia State finished with only 324 yards and turned the ball over three times.

Betting Trends

  • South Alabama is 2-6 ATS in its last eight against opponents with winning records
  • South Alabama is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 on the road against opponents with winning home records
  • South Alabama is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 following an ATS win
  • Georgia State is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five at home
  • Georgia State is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five on turf
  • Georgia State is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a double-digit home loss

South Alabama at Georgia State College Football Odds
 

The spread has been moving up and down throughout the week in a range from -9.5 to -11.5, with Georgia State being favored. It currently stands at -10 across the board for the Panthers. The total has done even less, ranging between 57 and 55.5. It appears to have leveled out at 56.
 

South Alabama at Georgia State College Football Picks


In an otherwise rough stretch to end the season, the Panthers get a much-needed reprieve from the schedule in the form of South Alabama. Appalachian State may have run circles around Georgia State, but that almost certainly won't be the case this weekend. The Jaguars rank last in the Sun Belt Conference in scoring offense (17.2 points per game) and total offense (314.2 yards per game). They have been held to 17 points or fewer on six occasions, including to only three by App State on Oct. 26 and to 17 by Georgia Southern on Oct. 3 even though that one went to double-overtime. Last weekend's 37-27 home loss to Louisiana dropped South Alabama to 1-9 overall and 0-6 in the conference. Freshman Desmond Trotter made a second straight start in that setback after replacing Cephus Johnson against Appalachian State. The Jaguars have tried three QBs this year (also Tylan Morton) and nothing much has worked.

For the Panthers, Ellington is expected to take the field once again but it obviously remains to be seen how he fares on the knee. Brown will undoubtedly be ready for action in case Ellington is too far away from 100 percent to compete. Either way, expect Georgia State to feature a run-heavy offense on Saturday. GSU has racked up 2,658 rushing yards in 2019, 1,208 thanks to Tra Barnett-who also has 10 touchdowns and a 6.2 ypc average. Four different players have scored at least four TDs on the ground. The Panthers boast the second-best rushing offense in the Sun Belt and South Alabama is surrendering more than 203 rushing yards per contest. It could be a long day at the office for the Jags.


Pick: Georgia State -10 for 7 units

Season: 4-4 record, down 3 units


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