Georgia State Panthers Picks for Week 12 in Doc's Specialization Series

by Ricky Dimon - 11/14/2019

For the most part, the Georgia State Panthers' 2019 campaign has been one big heap of success. But things went south last weekend against Louisiana-Monroe, and they could go south in a real hurry with quarterback Dan Ellington having suffered a knee injury during the recent loss.

Georgia State kicked things off with a victory over Tennessee, followed that up by defeating Furman, and eventually needed only eight games to become bowl eligible with a 6-2 record. Despite losses to Texas State (37-34 in triple-overtime) and Louisiana-Monroe (45-31), in addition to a nonconference setback against Western Michigan, the Panthers still control their own destiny in the East Division of the Sun Belt Conference. That's because Appalachian State has one loss (to Georgia Southern) and the Panthers and Mountaineers are going head-to-head on Saturday. This is when the schedule starts to get really tough for GSU, as two of its final three regular-season games come against ASU and Georgia Southern.

With that, we continue to track Georgia State throughout its 10th year of football. There will be a selection on each game at the end of the weekly article, and we'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and document the results.

Last Game

Everything was going right for the Panthers heading into last week's matchup with Louisiana-Monroe. They had won four in a row and were also coming off a bye week. If anything, however, the rest seemed to do more harm the good-sapping energy as opposed to recharging batteries. In what was a competitive contest until the final few minutes, a whopping seven lead changes took place during the first half, and it was tied 31-31 going into the fourth quarter. The Warhawks pulled away late with two touchdowns in the fourth, showcasing a balanced offense that Georgia State failed to contain. They finished with 590 total yards-299 on the ground and 291 through the air.

The Panthers did their best to keep but ultimately faded down the stretch without Ellington. An injury in the waning moments of the opening half forced the senior signal-caller to miss the entirety of the game's concluding 30 minutes. He was replaced by freshman Cornelious Brown, who completed eight of 18 passes for 80 yards while keeping the ball himself just three times for 14 yards. The visitors racked up 414 rushing yards, but it was not quite enough to stay on level terms with Louisiana-Monroe.

Betting Trends

Appalachian State is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 overall
Appalachian State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 on the road
Appalachian State is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records
Georgia State is 2-6-2 ATS in its l0 against teams with winning records
Georgia State is 1-4 ATS in its last five at home against teams with winning road records
Georgia State is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight following a loss
Georgia State is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings between the two teams

Appalachian State at Georgia State College Football Odds

Georgia State opened as a +14.5 underdog at most sportsbooks and as low as +14 at some, but confidence in Appalachian State has taken the line on a steady rise. It now stands at +16.5 across the board for the Panthers. The total has fluctuated a bit, which is not unusual for a rather large number. It opened at 63.5 at most books, briefly fell to 61 or 61.5 depending on the book, and is now at 62.

Appalachian State at Georgia State College Football Picks

Ellington will miss Saturday's showdown against the Mountaineers . That may not be crippling since Appalachian State boasts the best passing defense in the Sun Belt Conference and Georgia State probably would have been forced to keep the ball on the ground anyway, but it certainly does not help. Brown will have to be more dynamic in his backup role than he was this past week when he did little more than hand the ball off to Tra Barnett and Destin Coates.

"It's still too early to tell (how much time he'll miss)," head coach Sean Elliott said of Ellington. "He won't be back this week. We'll see how his recovery goes. We'll proceed this week with Quad Brown and let him run our show."

Running the ball on the Mountaineers will not exactly be a simple task, either. They rank third in the Sun Belt in rushing defense, No. 1 in total defense, and second in scoring defense. Their offense is no slouch, averaging 411.3 yards per game and 36.4 ppg-the latter number good for second-most in the conference. Quarterback Zac Thomas has thrown 14 touchdowns while being picked off only for times, and he has also scored five times on the ground while running for 296 yards. Appalachian State is averaging 5.2 yards per rush as a team, and five different players have more than 140 rushing yards this season. This team is 8-1 overall with a win over North Carolina.

Given App State's formidability and Georgia State's sudden downturn, this one could get out of hand.

Pick - Appalachian State -16.5 for 5 units

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Georgia State Panthers Picks for Week 12 in Doc's Specialization Series

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