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Expert Super Bowl Props Betting Advice: Defensive Tackles Odds


by - 1/29/2019

Los Angeles Rams nose tackle Ndamukong Suh

Not many people are thinking about the defenses when it comes to this Super Bowl. Why would they? The Rams had the second-most-productive offense in the league in the regular season, and the Patriots were fourth, so the offense-loving general public expect fireworks. They remember the fun that came when these squads played the Chiefs, and they want another serving of that. But we have seen in recent weeks that solid defenses can confound this Rams offense, and both teams have defensive coaches who are smart enough to have some tricks ready for this one. So, we have to pay attention to the defenses. And we can bet on the performance of the defenses, too, which makes it more fun. Here's a look at the individual defensive tackles and assists props available at Bovada :

Rams

Aaron Donald - over/under 4.5 tackles and assists: It makes sense that we start with the highest profile and most talented defender in the game - by a pretty wide margin. Because of his position, though, he doesn't have close to the highest number here. Donald had a sack for every two solo tackles he had this year - which tells you how stunningly impressive his 20.5 sacks were, among other things. He added 18 assists, so he had 3.7 total tackles per game in the regular season. And he has had just two tackles in each of the two playoff games. He went over this total just four times all year and just once in his last six years. The under at -120 is very playable.

Ndamukong Suh - o/u 4.5: Like Donald, Suh had just 59 total tackles in the regular season, so his average was well below this number, and he has had four total tackles in each of the two playoff games. But from Weeks 10 to 15 he has gone over this number in five of the six games he played. He was dialed in then, and he should be again here. The over is actually a bit of an underdog here at -105, and that feels nicely playable.

Cory Littleton - o/u 8: This linebacker led the team in both total and solo tackles, so it makes sense that he has the biggest number here. With 125 tackles, he averaged 7.8 per game in the regular season. He had just seven against the Cowboys but then 11 last time out. In total he went over this total eight times, and landed on the number four more times, so the over was slightly profitable. But the over is at -130 here, so there isn't much value. This is a number just screaming to be passed on.

John Johnson - o/u 7: This safety averaged 7.4 tackles per game in his 16 regular-season appearances. But in the playoffs, he had only seven against the Cowboys and four against the Chiefs. In total he went over this total seven times in 16 games, and hit it two times, so the long-term money was on the under despite the average. But I expect the Patriots to be passing a lot, which will keep him active. I lean slightly to the over.

Patriots

Kyle Van Noy - o/u 6: Van Noy led the team in tackles, though his 92 would have been a distant third on the Rams. He averaged 5.75 total tackles per game. In the postseason, he had only four tackles against the Chargers, but bounced back with 10 against the Chiefs. That was a huge effort, but it was only the second time he had gone over this number since week 10. The under is at +110, and that feels like it is worth a shot.

Devin McCourty - o/u 5.5: McCourty averaged 5.1 tackles per game in the regular season and has averaged five in the playoffs. And he has gone over this number just three times in his last 13 games. The under, at -115, is very comfortably playable.

Patrick Chung - o/u 5.5: Chung played 15 regular-season games and averaged 5.6 tackles per game. He had a big game against the Chargers with seven tackles, but he had only two against the Chiefs. It was a rough game for him. But he has been in this New England system for a long time, and he knows what this game means. I expect a solid game from him and would take the over.

Dont'a Hightower - o/u 3: The linebacker averaged 3.2 tackles per game in the regular season and has had two in each of the playoff games. He has hit this number twice in his last six games, but he has not gone over it. The under is at -110, and I like it.

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