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Cowboys vs. Giants Monday Night Football Picks Week 9


by - 10/30/2019

Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott

Bit of a bad break in splitting the Week 8 Monday night game as I recommended Pittsburgh at -13.5 and under 42 points with the Steelers winning 27-14. Could have been double loss, though, as Miami had a chance to kick a field goal on fourth-and-7 at the Pittsburgh 31 with just under three minutes left and potentially made the score 27-17, which obviously would have pushed the game "over" that total. But the atrocious Fins, who led 14-0 after one quarter, instead went for it, and naturally Ryan Fitzpatrick was sacked. If Pittsburgh had somehow lost that game, Mike Tomlin deserved to be fired on the spot.

For NFL Week 9 , it looks like another mismatch, albeit not quite as bad, as the Dallas Cowboys are in prime-time yet again as they visit the NFC East rival New York Giants. No one wants to see the Jets or Giants this season in a national TV game, but they are both always going to be featured in at least a couple each because of the massive New York market. We have to deal with the Giants on MNF again on Dec. 9 in Philly, but the rest of the schedule on Mondays looks pretty good.

If you had told me one of these teams made a fairly significant trade ahead of Tuesday's deadline, I sure would have thought it was Dallas addressing its secondary. And reports were the Cowboys were after stud Jets young safety Jamal Adams, but the Jets hung on to him. However, the Jets did send defensive lineman and former No. 6 overall pick Leonard Williams to the Giants for a third-round pick in 2020 and a fifth-rounder in 2021. Not really sure why the Giants did that deal - allegedly the first-ever between the two New York teams - considering Williams is an unrestricted free agent after this season. Apparently, the Giants are confident of re-signing him, but that seems a lot to give up for a disappointing player set to hit free agency.

Cowboys at Giants Betting Story Lines

Dallas wasn't totally quiet ahead of the deadline, getting defensive end Michael Bennett from the Patriots last week for a conditional seventh-round pick. Dallas has lost defensive lineman Tyrone Crawford on injured reserve and is in the bottom third of the league in pressure rate, so maybe Bennett helps a bit. Had had 2.5 sacks in six games with the Pats, but it should tell you something if the Patriots basically give someone away.

Bennett should debut this week as Dallas comes off its bye and with a half-game lead in the loss column over the Philadelphia Eagles for first in the NFC East. The Cowboys own the tiebreaker for now thanks to a 37-10 home win in Week 7 - they play in Philly in Week 16. The bye came at a good time with guys like receiver Amari Cooper (ankle/quad), tackles Tyron Smith (ankle) and La'el Collins (knee), linebacker Leighton Vander Esch (stinger) and defensive end Robert Quinn (ribs) all nursing injuries. The schedule is about to get much tougher as after this game, the Cowboys play the Vikings, Lions, Patriots and Bills within a 19-day span.

New York lost its fourth straight game last week, 31-26 in Detroit. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones had really struggled in the previous three but he was great against a solid Lions defense, throwing for 322 yards and four touchdowns and, just as important, not throwing a pick (he did lose a fumble). Rookie receiver Darius Slayton will be a popular fantasy football pickup this week because he had two TD catches vs. Detroit. Not clear if No. 1 receiver Sterling Shepard will return from a serious concussion this week. He has missed the past three games.

I haven't seen any updated NFL coach firing odds as of this writing - no question Atlanta's Dan Quinn will be the favorite - but it's looking more and more like Pat Shurmur won't be back for Year 3 with New York. This team just makes too many stupid mistakes. Maybe he saves his job it the Giants win five of their final eight or something and Jones really keeps improving. Doubt it.

 

Cowboys at Giants Betting Odds and Trends

At 5Dimes, Dallas is a 7.5-point favorite (+110) with a total of 47.5. On the moneyline, the Cowboys are -320 and Giants +260. On the alternate lines, the Cowboys are -8 +115), -7 (-110) and -6.5 (-130). Dallas is 1-2 against the spread on the road and 2-1 "over/under." New York is 1-3 ATS at home and 0-4 O/U.

The Cowboys have covered 13 of their past 16 vs. the NFC East but only four of the previous 14 on Monday. The Giants are 5-17-1 ATS in their past 23 following an ATS win and 1-4 ATS in their previous five vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 13-6 in Dallas' past 19 after a win. It's 4-1 in New York's previous five on Monday. The Cowboys have covered five straight in the series. The under is 5-2 in the previous seven.

Cowboys at Giants Betting Prediction

Dallas looks to sweep the season series for a third straight year as the Cowboys were 35-17 home winners over the Giants in Week 1. Dak Prescott was a beast with 405 yards and four TD passes. Both Michael Gallup and Cooper had 100-yard games, and Zeke Elliott rushed for a score but didn't have a lot of touches after missing the entire preseason due to a holdout. Eli Manning was still starting then for New York; Jones did see some brief action. Evan Engram had a big game with 11 catches for 116 yards and a score. Saquon Barkley rushed for 120 but 59 was on one run.

Project a Cowboys 27-20 victory this time, so we will give the 6.5-point alternate line and go under the total.

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