Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions for Monday Night Football

by Alan Matthews - 9/25/2019

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph

I have yet to hit both picks on a Monday night game this season but also have yet to miss both. Another split in Week 3 as the Bears won 31-15 in Washington, easily covering the spread, but the total was set at 41.5, and we really liked the "under" there. And, frankly, it would have gone under if not for a Bears defensive touchdown. Chicago couldn't mount any long drives it seemed but kept getting the ball in good field position thanks to forcing five turnovers.

As for this week … well, folks, not much positive to say about Bengals at Steelers in a matchup of winless teams. I'm looking at the rest of the MNF schedule and potentially the only worse one will be Dolphins at Steelers in Week 8. However, I'm quite confident saying this will be the only one the rest of this year featuring teams with a zero in the win column.

More: Josh Gives ATS Picks for Bengals vs. Steelers MNF

Just six teams since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule have made the playoffs after a 0-3 start. The 2018 Houston Texans did it, but they also were loaded with talent and a but unlucky to be 0-3. There's NO chance either of these clubs are doing that. Not real surprised the Bengals are crap, but it marks only the fifth time in the 51 seasons since Chuck Noll became coach that the Steelers are winless after three weeks. In 2013 under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh started 0-4 and almost made the playoffs. Then again, that team had a healthy Ben Roethlisberger and this one doesn't.

Bengals at Steelers Betting Story Lines

Wow, think how much has changed since these teams closed the 2018 regular season against one another in Pittsburgh. The Steelers were, you know, still a marquee franchise and had a chance to win the AFC North. They had to beat the Bengals and have Cleveland upset Baltimore. Pittsburgh did its part in a 16-13 win, but the Browns didn't cooperate.

That would be the last game with Antonio Brown as technically a member of the Steelers, although he didn't play because of his tiff with the team that precipitated a trade. Big Ben had just completed one of his best seasons, playing all 16 games for the first time since 2014 and leading the NFL in passing yardage (nope, it wasn't Patrick Mahomes) with a career-high 5,129 yards. Both Juju Smith Schuster and James Conner looked like rising stars. Neither has been great yet in the early going of 2019, especially Conner.

Be interesting to see if Mason Rudolph improves in his second career start under center. He was 14-for-27 for 174 yards two touchdowns and one pick in last week's loss in San Francisco. A total of 76 of those yards and one of the TDs came via Smith-Schuster, who did most of the work with a long run after the catch. Keep in mind that the Steelers won't be tanking this year because for some strange reason they traded their 2020 first-round pick to Miami for cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick. Good player, but stupid-high price.

As for Cincinnati, that Week 17 loss would be the merciful end of the Marvin Lewis era as he was pushed out after 16 seasons. He had been the second-longest tenured coach in the NFL. Lewis' postseason record of 0-7 is the worst in league history. I have no idea if young Zac Taylor is going to be a good coach, but at least he's the polar opposite of Lewis (who was 8-26 vs. Pittsburgh).

The Bengals have yet to have top receiver AJ Green following ankle surgery early in camp, and it doesn't sound like he's all that close to playing. Cincinnati hasn't topped 20 points in the first three weeks even though Dalton is second in the league with 978 passing yards. Lot of those were empty yards.

Bengals at Steelers Betting Odds and Trends

At 5Dimes, Pittsburgh is a 4-point favorite (-110) with a total of 43.5. On the moneyline, the Steelers are -210 and Bengals +175. On the alternate lines, Pittsburgh is -4.5 (-102) and -3.5 (-118). The Bengals are 2-0 against the spread on the road and 0-2 "over/under." The Steelers are 0-1 ATS at home and 1-0 O/U.

Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its past six after a loss and 7-2 ATS in its previous nine vs. the AFC North. Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its past five on Monday but has covered only four of its previous 14 overall at home. The under is 5-1 in the Steelers' past six after a loss. It's 5-2 in the past seven meetings. The Bengals have covered just seven of the previous 26.

Bengals at Steelers Betting Prediction

Pittsburgh has won eight in a row over Cincinnati but obviously that wasn't with Rudolph at the helm. I'm not a huge Dalton guy and think the Bengals may move on from him after this year, perhaps giving third-round rookie Ryan Finley a look sooner rather than later, but I'd still rather have Dalton right now than Rudolph. Thus, I'll take the 4 points. We'll go under the total. Something like 19-17 in favor of Pittsburgh.

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions for Monday Night Football

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