When Betting Championship Futures, Not All Sports Are Created Equal
This article appeared in the 2019 Doc's Sports Journal and was written in May.
As a lifelong fan of the Kansas City Chiefs, the first thing I did when I moved to Las Vegas to attend UNLV for college was to plunk down $100 on my favorite team to win the Super Bowl. And that trend, unfortunately for my bank account, continued every year for many years. I was like many bettors when it comes to championship futures betting. I liked to have a bet in play for the entire season with the chance of a big payout if my team did indeed make it to the Promised Land. It made watching the games every week even more exciting.
Since I've learned more about the sports betting industry, however, I no longer blindly bet on my favorite sports teams. I do it only if I find betting value in their odds. Heck, I have bet against the Chiefs over the years more than I have bet on them. I wear it as a badge of honor that I have the discipline to wager against the team I root for. My drinking buddies at The Tilted Stick, my favorite football bar in Ocean Beach, Calif., love to give me a hard time about it.
I also rarely play championship futures anymore. The odds are posted with the square, or novice, bettor in mind. These bets are made for the weekend warriors in Las Vegas who want to bet on their favorite squad. The oddsmakers know which popular teams will get the most betting handle, and the odds normally aren't an accurate representation of a team's true chances to win a championship.
They can be interesting to wager on in certain situations, however. There have been some big underdogs that have won championships in their respective sports and brought their championship futures backers a hefty return on investment. But not all sports are created equally when it comes to chances to score a big profit. For me, the NBA is basically worthless for championship futures for reasons I will explain later in this article. But MLB championship futures, where teams can come from nowhere to win it all, offer an astute handicapper a chance to make some good money.
Below I will detail some of my research on championship futures from the major professional sports leagues from the last 20 years of results to see which sports give the best chance of landing a juicy payout.
NFL Championship Futures Betting - Average Championship Odds Last 20 Years: 24-to-1
Related: Super Bowl Predictions
Since football season is here, we will start with the NFL first. And pro football has the highest average return on investment for championship futures in the last 20 years at 24-to-1. That number is somewhat skewed, however, since the NFL had the biggest underdog to win a championship of any pro sports league when the St. Louis Rams, led by quarterback Kurt Warner, won the Super Bowl as a 150-to-1 preseason long shot during the 1999 season. The sportsbooks in Las Vegas got royally screwed on that one as even paying out tourists at 150-to-1 had to hurt the bottom line.
Since the Rams won that Super Bowl, the bookies have become smarter about their futures odds. They are very careful when setting odds for the big long shots, and they have shortened odds across the betting board because they know that the square bettors will lay down money on their favorite team no matter what the numbers are. Joe Blow partying in Las Vegas for the weekend isn't going to know the difference between 30-to-1 and 50-to-1, and he will make the bet at lower odds regardless of true value. And that's why sharp bettors don't really mess around with championship futures. That and the fact that the wise guy bettors don't like their bankroll tied up in one wager for an entire season. There are too many more viable opportunities on the daily betting board.
That doesn't go for all sharp bettors, however, and I myself like to play championship futures now and then. The NFL has been as good as anything to wager on in the last 20 years, even though that 24-to-1 average is bumped up by the long shot Rams' win. And just two years ago the Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl at 40-to-1 preseason odds. We had a five-year streak from 2007 to 2012 where only one Super Bowl winner (the 2010 Green Bay Packers at 11-to-1) was at less than 18-to-1 in the preseason. That stretch started off with the New York Giants cashing as 30-to-1 long shots. In QB Tom Brady's first year as a starter for New England in 2001, the Patriots advanced to and won the Super Bowl as 60-to-1 long shots.
Before you go betting the mortgage on long shots for the upcoming NFL season, you must know that, besides the Eagles' win two seasons ago, the recent Super Bowl winners have been mostly among the preseason favorites. Even with the Eagles factored in at those big odds, the average for the past six years is 12.5-to-1. Part of the reason for that is that the NFL has become a passing league. Therefore, the teams with the best quarterbacks have the best chance to win. And the teams with the best quarterbacks are the ones that the oddsmakers are going to give the lowest odds. The Eagles were starting rookie Carson Wentz the season they won as a big long shot (he was injured, and Nick Foles led them the rest of the way to the championship). But it was hard for anyone to know that the young signal caller would be so good so quickly.
NBA Championship Futures Betting - Average Championship Odds Last 20 Years: 7-to-1
Related: NBA Predictions
Betting on the NBA Championship is a useless endeavor. I mean, hey, you can probably pick the eventual winner of the NBA Finals during preseason without doing much handicapping. But you are going to have to lock up your money for nine months with very little return on investment. Each season there are only a few teams with realistic championship expectations. And in this new era of Super Teams, it's even more difficult to turn a substantial return on investment from NBA Championship futures.
As of this writing, we are still in the second round of the 2019 NBA Playoffs. The Warriors were the heavy favorites in the preseason at an astounding -187. That means you had to bet $187 to make $100 profit if they do win it all again. Who wants to invest money in that type of return, especially when a key injury or two could derail the entire bet? However, at the same time, there are only two or three teams with a realistic chance to overtake Golden State even if they were to falter somewhere along the line. And even if the Warriors' dynasty ends, there will no doubt be another Super Team that will take their place atop the league.
The NBA has the lowest average total for championship futures during the last 20 years of any of the four major sports leagues at lower than 7-to-1. The biggest underdog that has cashed was this same Warriors club in 2014-15 when they were 28-to-1 in the preseason at the start of their current dynasty. The Dallas Mavericks were 20-to-1 when they won it all in the 2010-11 season.
Even with those two long shots cashing their futures tickets, the average over the course of the last 10 years is still 7-to-1. And that average will probably go down in the next 10 years as teams stockpile top-flight players in search of a league championship. If you are looking for a solid ROI for futures, the NBA isn't the place to look.
NHL Championship Futures Betting - Average Championship Odds Last 20 Years: 13-to-1
Related: NHL Predictions
Things get a little better for the value hunter when looking at the 20-year history of pro hockey Stanley Cup futures, where the average return during that time is 13-to-1. As we saw in the 2019 playoffs, anything can happen, with the two top seeds in each conference, Tampa Bay and Calgary, getting embarrassed in the first round en route to an early postseason exit.
In the last nine years, only one team, the 2014-15 Chicago Blackhawks, won the championship at less than 10-to-1 odds (they were 7-to-1 in the preseason). It seems like that is a solid trend for NHL betting, to look for teams in the 10-to-1 to 16-to-1 range as there have been no big long shots that have won. However, eight of the last nine champions have come from this group of semi long shots.
We have also seen a 60-to-1 long shot hit in the last 20 years (the 2005-06 Carolina Hurricanes) and also a 25-to-1 team (the Lightning the previous year). NHL hockey seems like a good league to do your research and bet on a team at decent odds that has a chance to win the Stanley Cup.
MLB Championship Futures Betting - Average Championship Odds Last 20 Years: 19-to-1
Related: MLB Predictions
Baseball is an even better sport than hockey to look for long shot value. I think this is the best of the four major pro sports leagues on which to place a championship futures bet. There have been quite a few teams that have won at long odds, and the average return on investment for MLB champs has been 19-to-1. There's a lot of turnover in baseball from year-to-year. It's not at all uncommon for a team that finished last in their division one year to make the postseason the next. The most popular teams in baseball, like the Red Sox, Yankees and Cubs, get a lion's share of the futures betting action every season, so this inflates the numbers for other, less-popular teams.
The last nine seasons have been particularly kind to baseball futures bettors that have looked for teams with long odds as the average odds for the MLB Champion is 21-to-1 during that stretch. The biggest long shot to hit during this time was the 2015 Kansas City Royals, who cashed their championship tickets at 33-to-1 preseason odds. The 2003 Florida Marlins (75-to-1) and the 2002 Anaheim Angels (40-to-1) were two other massive long shots that cashed tickets for their backers.
In the last nine years, we have seen six teams with odds at 20-to-1 or higher win the MLB Championship. This is definitely a pro sports league where an ambitious handicapper who does his or her homework in the offseason can get a leg up on the oddsmakers by identifying up-and-coming teams.
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