Mauricio Rua vs Paul Craig Predictions, Picks, UFC Fight Night 164 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 11/8/2019

Mauricio Rua vs Paul Craig

UFC Fight Night 164

Ginasio do Ibirapuera in Paraiso Brazil

Saturday, November 16, 2019

Mauricio Rua will take on Paul Craig at UFC Fight Night 164 in Ginasio do Ibirapuera in Paraiso Brazil on Saturday, November 16, 2019. The opening odds have Rua at -188 while Craig is priced at +140.

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua comes into this fight with a record of 26-11-0. The 37-year-old weighs in at 205 lbs and measures 6' 1". The orthodox fighter reaches 76". Paul "Bearjew" Craig measures in at 6' 3" and weighs in at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 12-4-0. The 31-year-old stretches 76". When talking about significant strikes, Mauricio Rua connects on 3.72 per minute and Paul Craig lands 2.09 significant strikes per min. Rua is landing 51% of the significant strikes he tries and Craig is landing 48%. When it comes to defending themselves, "Shogun" absorbs 2.65 significant strikes per min while "Bearjew" allows 2.68. Rua also defends against 55% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way and Craig curbs 46% of the shots thrown in his direction.

Regarding takedowns, Mauricio Rua is the better wrestler as he takes his opponents to the mat 2.23 times per 3 rds. Rua is getting his opponent to the mat on 48% of his tries and is defending 46% of all takedown tries against him. Craig is scoring a takedown on 21% of the takedowns he tries and is stuffing 50% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. In terms of subbing the opposition, Rua is the lesser skilled fighter by attempting 0.8 subs per 3 rounds while Craig tries 1.6 subs per 3 rounds.

In his last fight, Mauricio Rua went up against Tyson Pedro and ended up getting the victory by way of a punch to the head in round 3. Pedro landed 36 of 49 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Rua walked away from this fight having landed 62 of 94 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Pedro ended up landing 31 of 44, which means his percentage was 70%. He finished the fight landing 21 of 33 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the cage, Rua ended up landing 53% of his significant strikes by connecting on 30 of 56. Of those significant strikes, he was 23 of 45 to the head. 67% of the significant strikes landed by Pedro and 40% of them connected on by Rua were tallied at a distance.

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In the last Octagon appearance for Paul Craig, he went up against Vinicius Moreira and ended up getting the victory via rear naked choke in round 1. Moreira connected on 100% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Craig landed 5% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Craig ended up connecting on 66% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 18 of 27. He ended up connecting on 16 of 25 significant strikes aimed at the head. Moreira landed 1 of 3 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up landing 0 of 2 directed at the head. In regard to the total strikes thrown in this fight, Moreira landed 1 of 3 while Craig ended up connecting on 33 of 43 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights to keep an eye on

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Charles Oliveira will enter the Octagon against Jared Gordon. Oliveira will be looking to add a win to his total of 27-8-0. The 30-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and stands 5' 10". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 74". Gordon stands 5' 9" and steps on the scale at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 15-3-0. The 31-year-old has an arm span of 68". When it comes to grappling, Charles Oliveira scores a takedown 2.80 times per 3 rds while Jared Gordon scores a takedown 3.05 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Oliveira lands an average of 3.18 strikes/min and connecting on 50% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage we have Jared Gordon, who tags the opposition on 54% of the strikes that he throws and lands 6.29 per minute.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Wellington Turman is set to square up in the Octagon against Markus Perez. Perez walks into the cage with a mark of 11-2-0. The 31-year-old weighs 185 lbs and measures in at 6' 1". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 73". Turman stands in at 6' 0" and weighs in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a record of 15-3-0. The 23-year-old has a wingspan of 72". Regarding wrestling, Markus Perez curbs 81% of his opponents' takedown tries and is finishing his takedown attempts on 28% of his attempts. Turman is taking his opponents to the mat on 57% of his attempts and curbs 10% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the category of striking, Perez is taking 4.24 strikes/minute while he connects on 2.56 strikes/min. Turman, on the contrary, takes 3.33 strikes per min and lands 1.67 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Paul Craig (+140)

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