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Cub Swanson vs Kron Gracie UFC Predictions & Tips - 10/12/2019


by - 9/29/2019

Kron Gracie UFC

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Cub Swanson vs Kron Gracie

UFC Fight Night 161

Amalie Arena in Tampa

Saturday, October 12, 2019

Cub Swanson will enter the Octagon with Kron Gracie at UFC Fight Night 161 in Amalie Arena in Tampa on Saturday, October 12, 2019. The opening moneyline has Swanson coming in at +197 while Gracie is at -253.

Cub Swanson will be looking to add a victory to his total of 25-11-0. The 35-year-old is fighting at 145 lbs and measures 5' 8". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 70". Kron Gracie comes in at 5' 9" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The southpaw fighter comes into this fight holding a mark of 5-0-0. The 31-year-old has a wingspan of 70". In the category of significant strikes, Cub Swanson is connecting on 4.38 per min and Kron Gracie is landing 0.95 significant strikes per min. Swanson connects on 49% of the significant strikes he throws and Gracie is connecting on 20%. Concerning the fighter's defense, Swanson takes 3.55 significant strikes per min and Gracie absorbs 1.90. Swanson also defends 61% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way and Gracie deflects 71% of them.

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In the wrestling category, Cub Swanson is the lesser skilled grappler as he takes his opponents to the mat 1.12 times per 15 minutes. Swanson is getting his opponent to the mat on 50% of his attempts and stopping 60% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Gracie is taking his opponents to the canvas on 50% of his takedown attempts. In terms of subbing the opposition, Swanson is less apt at going for the finish by trying 0.5 finishes per 3 rounds while Gracie attempts 7.1 finishes per 3 rds.

In his last appearance in the Octagon, Cub Swanson squared up with Shane Burgos and was defeated by way of split decision in round 3. Burgos ended up landing 147 of 282 total strikes attempted in that contest. ended the night having landed 132 of 260 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Burgos ended up landing 134 of 268, which means his percentage was 50%. He landed 82 of 208 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Swanson landed 50% of his significant strikes by connecting on 129 of 256. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he was 66 of 167 aimed at the head. 95% of the significant strikes connected on by Burgos and 87% of them landed by Swanson were thrown at distance.

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In the last bout for Kron Gracie, he fought Alex Caceres and ended up winning this fight via rear naked choke in round 1. Caceres landed 100% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Gracie ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Gracie landed 20% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 2 of 10. He landed 1 of 6 significant strikes directed at the head. Caceres ended up connecting on 4 of 14 significant strikes in that battle. Of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 3 of 13 aimed at the head. Discussing the total strikes thrown in this fight, Caceres ended up connecting on 4 of 14 and Gracie ended up landing 3 of 11 total strikes. 

Other bouts to watch

One more match to look forward to is when Matt Frevola will go up against Luis Pena. Frevola holds a mark of 7-1-1. The 29-year-old tips the scales at 155 lbs and stands 5' 9". The orthodox fighter reaches 71". Pena measures in at 6' 3" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the Octagon holding a record of 7-1-0. The 26-year-old stretches 75". When it comes to grappling, Matt Frevola takes his opponents down 3.04 times per 3 rounds and Luis Pena is able to score a takedown 1.34 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Frevola connects on 3.19 strikes/minute and is connecting on 37% out of all the strikes he attempts. The other fighter in this bout is Luis Pena, who tags his opponent on 46% of the strikes he has thrown and lands 3.80 per min.

Another must see fight on the night is when Gerald Meerschaert is set to encounter Eryk Anders. Anders will be looking to add a victory to his record of 12-4-0. The 32-year-old will fight at 205 lbs and measures in at 6' 1". The southpaw fighter reaches 75". Meerschaert stands in at 6' 1" and records a weight of 185 lbs. The southpaw fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 29-11-0. The 31-year-old has an arm span of 77". In terms of wrestling, Eryk Anders is able to defend against 75% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is finishing his takedown attempts on 40% of his tries. Meerschaert is taking his opponents down on 43% of his tries and is able to thwart 46% of the takedowns his opponents try. With regard to striking, Anders absorbs 4.06 strikes/min and he is connecting on 2.89 strikes/min. Meerschaert, moreover, is absorbing 3.00 strikes per min and is dealing 2.22 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Cub Swanson (+197)

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