2018 World Cup Futures Betting Odds: Stage of Elimination Props Predictions

by Trevor Whenham - 3/22/2018

One of the many great things when it comes to the World Cup is the number of ways you can bet on it. Basically, no matter what opinion you have about any of the 32 teams in the field you can find a way to profit on it. You can pick the winner of the tournament, or you can bet on geography, group order of finish, point of elimination - or pretty much anything else you could want to.

One of my favorite ways to bet on the higher-profile teams is the stage of elimination prop bets. You can bet on exactly which stage of the tournament a team will fall. It's a great way to get a better price on a more specific opinion than just betting on group winners or overall tournament winners. Let's look at three of the higher-profile teams and opportunities these props provide. ( Odds are from BetOnline ):

Brazil: There is some uncertainty surrounding the Brazilians as the status of all-world megastar Neymar is unclear -- he is currently recovering from surgery on a broken foot. And there is also the unavoidable fact that this is a team that has disappointed on the biggest stage in recent years. They lost in the quarterfinals in 2006 and 2010 after their win in 2002 and then managed only a fourth-place finish last time out despite playing at home. They are still a power, and a very popular public team, but they have certainly not overachieved.

On the other hand, they have a generous draw here in Russia. They are all but a lock to win their group, but even if they faltered somewhat it would take a true miracle for them not to advance. Whether they finish first or second in the group, they will face a team from Group F in their first elimination game. That could be Germany, which would be a round of 16 game for the ages. But it is far more likely that both teams finish first in their groups, in which case Brazil would get a much more manageable opponent. Win there and their most likely opponent next would be Belgium or England. And if Germany and Brazil both win their groups then they can't meet until the finals, which is obviously a positive.

Barring an unlikely disaster, then, the quarterfinals (+350) feels like the floor, and losing in the semifinals (+400) or losing in the finals (+600) all feel viable. I don't like their chances of winning it all (no value at +500), so I would pass on that. Interestingly, the favorite of all the options is a loss in the Round of 16 (+250). That likely factors in the real possibility of playing the Germans, because Brazil isn't beating them whenever they meet them.

Germany: The Germans were given a group with Mexico, Sweden and South Korea, so the soccer gods basically handed them the group win. They are +800 to be eliminated in the group stage. And while it is fun to think of the repercussions that would have in the soccer world, it's just not going to happen. They are very likely to win and all but sure to advance.

Again, that potential round of 16 game with Brazil looms, and that is reflected in the fact that at +300 elimination in that round is the slight favorite. The quarterfinals (+350) feels like what should be a manageable game, so I don't see them going out there. They could potentially have to face the winner of an Argentina showdown with Spain or Portugal in the semifinals, though, and that could be tough. That sits at +400 for a loss there.

I believe in this team, though, and see them making the finals. Interestingly, they are seen as less likely to lose the championship game (+500) than they are to win it (+450). I would bet one of those two options - or both as a hedge - if I was looking to bet on this team.

England: This team is so interesting because their fans are so desperate for success, their domestic league is excellent, but they always find ways to disappoint. Since failing to make the tournament at all in 1994 they have fallen in the round of 16 twice, the quarterfinals twice, and didn't even advance out of the round robin last time out.

Optimism is somewhat higher this year, though, and the group is favorable - Belgium will be very tough, but Panama and Tunisia aren't. A group stage elimination would be a bit of a disaster, though at +400 clearly far from an impossible one - it's still England, after all. If they advance then they will play a team from Group H in the round of 16. With the possible exception of Group A with the host Russians, Group H is the weakest in the tournament. England is at +225, the lowest price of any, to go home there, but I just don't see it given the matchup. But then they would, depending on whether they were first or second, likely face the winner of either Group E or F. As we previously discussed that is either Germany or Brazil. England would be in tough there, so the quarterfinals (+250) seems like the most likely end of the line barring a shocking upset somewhere in the bracket before then.

If they somehow either avoided one of those teams or upset them then they would be +450 in the semifinals, +800 to lose the final, or +1600 to win it all. None of those prices are high enough to hold intrigue for me.

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2018 World Cup Futures Betting Odds: Stage of Elimination Props Predictions

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