2018 World Cup Betting Advice: Handicapping Third Games

by Trevor Whenham - 6/22/2018

On Sunday the second round of the round-robin portion of the 2018 FIFA World Cup comes to an end. From Monday to Thursday the final games of round robin will take place, and all of the spots in the elimination rounds will be claimed. It marks a shift in the flow of the tournament, and not in a good way. There are four games instead of three per day, and more should be better. But both games from a group are played at the same time, so your thumb is going to get plenty of exercise as you flip from channel to channel between the games.

These games are a little different for bettors than the first two, and you need to be aware of those differences to give yourself the best chance of betting success that you can. Here are five factors to keep in mind when betting these games:

Do they need the game?: All four teams in a group play at the same time, so any team that has not yet been eliminated still has something to play for in the games. The first step, then, when looking at any of these games is understanding what is on the line for every team. This should be obvious, but a lot of bettors don't go deep enough when looking at the games. You need to start by looking at whether teams have a chance of advancing. Then you need to look at what it will take for them to advance. Is a win enough? Do they need to win by a wide margin to get the goal differential where it needs to be, or is any win good enough? Will a draw help or hurt? Do they control their own destiny, or does the outcome of the other game control their fate? Motivation can vary widely in these games, so the more you can think about these questions and similar ones, the better off you will be when betting these games.

What comes next?: If a team is already advancing regardless of the outcome of this game then you need to really think about what lies ahead for them. Can they win the group with a win, or is where they finish out of their control? If they have some control of their fate then is there clearly a place that is preferable? Sometimes finishing second in a group may be favorable to finishing first because it lines up a more favorable opponent in the Round of 16. Health needs to be a real consideration here as well. If a team has been banged up, and they have a key player or key players who are hurting then resting and getting ready for the Round of 16 will likely be a lot more important than a particular result in this game. Again, it all comes down to motivation, and the likelihood that you will see some version of the best game from a team.

Any cards in play?: You need to keep yellow and red cards in mind. A player is suspended for a game if they get two yellow cards in the tournament or one red card. All cards accumulated are wiped away and players start clean when the quarterfinals arrive, but up until then they are vulnerable. There are a couple of things to think of in this set of games. First, it's quite possible that key players on one or both teams could be suspended for the game because they have had two games to collect cards. That would obviously have an impact. As well, if a key player already has a yellow card and their team is already advancing then they may be held out or played lightly to avoid them getting a second card and missing the Round of 16 game. Or if they do play they could be more careful and tentative than they normally might be.

Rivalry?: Even if a game is meaningless on paper, it could have particular significance to the teams if it is a rivalry game of some sort. Extra meaning in a game increases emotion and can shift the outcome. Paying attention to any link that the teams have with each other is therefore important.

How bad has the bad team been?: If there is seemingly a mismatch - a team that is winless and eliminated against a team that hasn't lost and is already advancing, for example - we need to make sure we really understand the dynamics of the matchup. The general betting public will almost always bet the more successful team heavily in those situations, so you can find some nice value betting the lesser team if they deserve your attention. Has the lesser team been blown out, or have they played tight games and just fallen short? Have they played at or below expectations up to this point? Have they been affected by an injury, and is that likely to continue? Has the team with the better record really been strong, or have they just taken advantage of circumstances? Do the styles of play give a team an advantage?

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Start:	November 26, 2024 @ 7:00 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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2018 World Cup Betting Advice: Handicapping Third Games

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