2018 Woodward Stakes Expert Picks with Odds and Betting Predictions

by Trevor Whenham - 8/30/2018

This is the closing weekend of the Saratoga meet, and the Woodward Stakes is the highlight of the action. And there is no way around it - this is a very weird edition of the race. This is a very significant race. Gun Runner used it as his final prep before his Breeders' Cup Classic win last year. And many other great horses have won it in recent times - Rachel Alexandra, Curlin, Havre de Grace, Ghostzapper, Mineshaft, and so on. But this year we don't really see a lot of greats. It's a full field of 14 horses - which is just bizarre by itself for a race for older horses at Saratoga. And instead of greats like those of the past, we have a lot of question marks and maybes. I don't think I could construct a more confounding and strange field if I wanted to. But that's what makes this sport fun - I guess. Here's how the highlights of the field shape up:

Gunnevera (4/1): The odds are as low as they are because of the big win the horse had early in August in an allowance race. He looked really good. But to back him you have to ignore all of the disappointments that came before that. He was awful in the Dubai World Cup, not really a factor in the Pegasus World Cup despite a third-place finish, an also-ran in the Classic last year, and an over-bet disappointment on the Triple Crown trail last year. This is a horse that just loves burning money in big races, and I don't have a lot of faith that that trend won't continue here.

Yoshida (5/1): Up to this point this horse has run only on turf and has made an art of building up big expectations and then failing to live up to them. He had two big wins early in his career and looked like a beast, and then he flopped in his graded stakes debut. He won two graded stakes in a row leading up to May this year, including his first Grade 1, but then went over to Ascot and totally flopped and then came back here to Saratoga in early August and flopped again. Now they are trying him on dirt and working hard to convince us that that has been the plan all along. I was harsh on the connections of Catholic Boy last week for making the move from turf to dirt when it didn't make a lot of sense to me, and he went out and just crushed the Travers field, so take my resistance with a grain of salt. However, I am not excited about this move despite obvious talent for the horse.

Tapwrit (6/1): When this horse won the Belmont last year I was a believer, and I was braced for big things. And in four starts since he has done nothing. It has been ugly. The talent is obviously there - the Belmont win is no fluke. He is a closer who has seemingly lost his kick, but this is a less-impressive field than some he has seen, so maybe he won't need to close as fast. Or maybe he peaked last June and will never be the same again.

Seeking the Soul (9/2): This horse has had a very odd career. Eleven of his 19 starts have been in allowance or maiden races. Two races back he was a bit of an odd entry in the Pegasus World Cup, finishing fifth. Then he was out of action until July, when he returned to action in the most bizarre of places - Indiana Grand - where he somehow finished second in a listed stakes race. That's not good - like a solid ACC basketball team entering the Big South tournament and not winning. And yet he is going to be near the top of this field from a betting perspective. And that is the 2018 Woodward in a nutshell. Easy pass for me.

Kurilov (10/1): This Chad Brown five-year-old came off the turf for the first time at Saratoga last time out and was solid in finishing second. Now he's back at the same distance. He needs to improve, but Brown knows Saratoga and is easy to trust, and this field is far from excellent. There's value here at anything close to this price, and he'll be on my tickets.

Patch (20/1): This Todd Pletcher horse captured hearts last year on the Triple Crown trail because he has only one eye. Great story. Doesn't translate to racing success in his case, though. Easy pass.

Rally Cry (20/1): This is the third Pletcher horse in the field. He has done little to excite and looked lousy in a five-horse allowance race early in the Saratoga meet. The only thing that is intriguing here is that Mike Smith is riding him. Smith rarely rides in New York anymore and very rarely rides for Pletcher, but he is here for another race and got this mount. That's a positive for an otherwise underwhelming horse and is enough to get him on my trifecta tickets at the bottom end.

Leofric (20/1) and Term of Art (30/1): These two are together because they are both trained by Brad Cox. Leofric is entered for his speed and could likely be alone on the lead early on. Term of Art has run for Cox only twice after joining his barn from Doug O'Neill - a massive upgrade in my eyes. His results haven't been great, but he is improving and I like the upside. I'll toss Leofric because he's one dimensional, but Term of Art will be another one who is part of my exotics.

Hence (20/1): I got clever and talked myself into betting this horse in my exotics in both the Derby and the Preakness last year. Terrible idea both times. Then he won the Iowa Derby after the Preakness, but then he found ways to lose, lose and lose some more. He finally won last time, but it was in Albuquerque. I'm not making this up - horses are coming out of Albuquerque and Indiana to run in the historic Woodward. So freaking strange.

Discreet Lover (8/1): His owner trains him, and he always seem to find a way to get a small check. But he has benefitted from picking up the pieces after scorching early paces the last couple of times out, and he isn't going to get that here. I'll pass - this price is ridiculous.

Imperative (30/1): This horse was a fairly impressive winner of the Charles Town Classic three back but has underwhelmed in two since. I don't really trust him, but at this price in this field I'm not leaving him off my tickets. He's not good, but he's not as bad as this price in this group.

Sunny Ridge (8/1): This five-year-old hasn't raced since early July and has never shown a lot of consistency. I don't think he wants this distance, and I am not convinced he is good enough - even against this ragtag group. And even if he was, 8/1 is a truly insane price for this horse. This race is just so strange that I can't even believe it.

Zanotti (20/1): A former claimer who has had some stakes success, but this feels like a leap too far here. He's not a Grade 1 horse - but then this isn't a Grade 1 field. His sire, Gio Ponti, was good to me, so I'll throw him on the bottom of my tri ticket - because have I mentioned how lousy this field is yet?

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Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 8:00 PM
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2018 Woodward Stakes Expert Picks with Odds and Betting Predictions

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